Archive for July, 2019
Wednesday, July 31st, 2019
NAND flash sales forecast to slide 32%, still ranked third-largest IC market this year.
IC Insights recently released its Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019. The update included IC Insights’ ranking of the 33 largest IC product categories based on their expected sales and unit shipment volumes for 2019. The 33 IC product categories are those defined by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization. The five largest IC product categories are shown in Figure 1.
Despite a 38% sales decline expected this year, the DRAM market is forecast to remain the largest of all IC product categories again in 2019 with sales reaching $62.0 billion, down from $99.4 billion in 2018. IC Insights believes the DRAM market will account for 17% of total IC sales in 2019. By comparison, DRAM sales accounted for 23.6% of the total IC market in 2018.
 Figure 1 The NAND flash market is forecast to slip from second to third position in the ranking this year with total sales falling 32% to $40.6 billion. Taken together, the DRAM and NAND flash memory categories are forecast to account for 29% of the total $357.7 billion IC market in this year compared to 38% of the total IC market in 2018.
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Tags: Analog, DRAM, Foundry Market, IC manufacturing, ICManufacturing, NAND, Power management analo9g
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Friday, July 26th, 2019
Excluding memory, correlation coefficient expected to reach a very high level of 0.94 in the 2018-2023 timeframe.
In its soon to be released Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019, IC Insights forecasts that the 2018-2023 global GDP and IC market correlation coefficient will reach 0.88 (0.94 when excluding memory), up from 0.87 in the 2010-2018 timeperiod. IC Insights depicts the increasingly close correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth through 2018, as well as its forecast through 2023, in Figure 1.
Figure 1
From 2010-2018, the correlation coefficient between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth was 0.87 (0.92 excluding memory), a strong figure given that a perfect positive correlation is 1.0. In the three decades previous to this timeperiod, the correlation coefficient ranged from a relatively weak 0.63 in the early 2000s to a negative correlation (i.e., essentially no correlation) of -0.10 in the 1990s.
IC Insights believes that the increasing number of mergers and acquisitions, leading to fewer major IC manufacturers and suppliers, is one of major changes in the supply base that illustrate the maturing of the industry and helping foster a closer correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth.
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Tags: IC manufacturing, ICManufacturing, Semiconductors, worldwide
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Thursday, July 18th, 2019
Falling IC ASPs to cause semiconductor content to plunge this year after setting a record high of 31.1% last year.
In its upcoming Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019 (to be released at the end of July), IC Insights forecasts that the 2019 global electronic systems market will grow 4% to $1,680 billion. In contrast, the worldwide semiconductor market is expected to drop by 12% this year to $443.8 billion after exceeding the $500.0 billion level for the first time last year. If the 2019 forecasts come to fruition, the average semiconductor content in an electronic system will drop to 26.4% after setting the all-time record of 31.1% last year (Figure 1).
Figure 1 (more…)
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Thursday, July 11th, 2019
Economic and trade uncertainties, softer demand to keep pressure on DRAM ASPs in 2019.
IC Insights will release its 200+ page Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019 later this month. The Mid-Year Update revises IC Insights’ worldwide economic and IC industry forecasts through 2023 that were published in The McClean Report 2019, released in January. Included in the update is a review of capital spending and DRAM market trends for the balance of this year and through the forecast period.
One of the significant questions facing the IC industry in the second half of 2019 is if and when the DRAM market will rebound. Any rebound in the market will be driven in part by available manufacturing capacity. After huge capex outlays for DRAM in 2017 and 2018, the question becomes how much new capacity will come online and how far DRAM prices (price per bit) will fall as a result of this buildup.
The three main DRAM suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—generally agree that DRAM bit volume will grow roughly 20% per year over the next few years. Figure 1 shows Micron’s perspective on the capex required to increase DRAM bit volume shipments 20% per year (data from Micron’s 2018 Analyst and Investor Event) versus IC Insights’ DRAM capex history and forecast data.
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