As shown, each year in which a double-digit quarterly IC market decline occurred, the full-year IC market dropped by at least 9%.  It is interesting to note that three of the seven largest quarterly IC market downturns since 1984 took place during the first three quarters of 2001, which put the 3Q01 IC market 44% below that of 4Q00.  As a result, 2001’s disastrous full-year IC market decline of 33% still stands as the worst annual performance in the history of the IC industry.The first quarter is usually the weakest quarter of the year for the IC market, averaging a sequential decline of 2.1% over the past 36 years, but the severity of the 1Q19/4Q18 IC market drop has started this year off at a very low level.  As a result, given the typical seasonality of the IC market, an abnormally strong second half of the year will be required in order to avoid a full-year 2019 double-digit IC market decline.

Report Details:  The 2019 McClean Report
Additional details on the 2019 quarterly IC market trends and forecasts will be provided in the May Update to The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (released in January 2019).  A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 200+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year.  An individual-user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password.  A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.