EDACafe Industry Predictions for 2024 – Weebit Nano

By Coby Hanoch, CEO, Weebit Nano

Semiconductors in 2024: Predictions from an Emerging Memory Perspective

Coby Hanoch

In semiconductors, 2023 was a mixed bag, with some applications like automotive and industrial growing, while overall the industry contracted. Looking ahead, analysts agree that we will see significant growth in 2024 as the industry recovers. The SIA forecasts a 13.1% increase in sales in 2024, and IDC is even more bullish, forecasting 20.2% revenue growth for the semiconductor industry in 2024.

At Weebit, a leading provider of ReRAM, the non-volatile memory (NVM) technology that is set to replace flash memory in the coming years, this growth is a positive sign, since nearly every electronic device needs NVM. Here I will outline some of the industry dynamics in 2024 that could driver further growth.

AI will get even edgier.

We can all agree that 2023 was the year of AI, and 2024 will be even more so. AI technologies are proliferating in every industry, with solutions in the cloud and increasingly at the edge where devices require local brains with power-efficient solutions. In 2024, we will see an increasing number of edge AI designs, particularly TinyML, moving to monolithic integration in 28nm and 22nm. Integrating memory on-chip in an advanced process node can save cost and power, and enhance security. This is important as AI/ML models continue to increase in size and sophistication.

Since embedded flash memory can’t scale below 28nm, what’s needed for these integrated devices is a different embedded NVM that can do the same level of inference as SRAM or DRAM but at extremely low power and cost. This is where ReRAM comes in – used not only for code storage, but also to store the synaptic weights needed for artificial neural network (NN) calculations. As much of the power consumption needed for NNs is related to data movement between a system’s computing elements and memory modules, integrating dense, low-power NVM like ReRAM closer to the computing elements can minimize power and latency. In 2024, we will see more designs moving in this direction.

Electrification will drive demand for smarter automotive MCUs.

The automotive sector was a bright spot for the industry in 2023, with growing demand for electric vehicles and efficient advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). Digitization and electrification of vehicles are contributing significantly to greater semiconductor demand, and semiconductor content per vehicle is growing. The complexity of many of these controllers is also increasing, while their cost sensitivity is also on the rise. Electric vehicles, for example, need more sophisticated electronics for battery management and motor control. In autonomous vehicles, we see more advanced sensors and smarter microcontrollers (MCUs) to support increasingly sophisticated programming.

NVM for these systems must have superior endurance that can execute code quickly, reliably, and securely, even in harsh environmental conditions. For cost and power reasons, we will increasingly see these designs moving to more advanced process nodes where embedded NOR flash can’t scale. Weebit ReRAM delivers the endurance, fast switching speed, high-temperature reliability (fully qualified up to 125°C), and longevity needed for automotive solutions. In 2024, we will see increasing demand for these smarter MCUs with integrated NVM.

Analog/mixed-signal designs will become more highly integrated.

The trend towards smarter, more integrated designs goes beyond AI and automotive. Even in analog/mixed signal designs like power management ICs (PMICs), audio amplifier ICs and other high-voltage designs, we are seeing integration of an MCU with its NVM on-chip to run algorithms. Smart PMICs in products such as wireless charging must be intelligent and able to run numerous algorithms, so they need an MCU and NVM that is low-power, programmable and field-upgradeable.

While historically such mixed-signal designs were manufactured in mature process geometries, power and cost pressures mean these designs are also moving to more advanced nodes. Integrating high-voltage devices with logic gates and NVM on a single die in 65nm-40nm in a BCD process can help reduce power consumption and increase performance. This is one of the first places we will see adoption of ReRAM as an embedded NVM, starting in 2024. ReRAM is a Back-End-of-Line (BEOL) technology, an advantage over flash which is a front-end-of line (FEOL) technology that often requires designers to make compromises with analog components and devices. In addition, ReRAM can be adopted once for a geometry and it will work with all the different variants of that node, unlike flash which must be adapted and re-tuned to each variant. In addition, with only a two-mask adder – versus the ~10 extra masks needed for flash – ReRAM is cost-effective, an obvious requirement for most ICs.

The semiconductor space race will ramp up.

The space race will continue in 2024. The Space Team at Morgan Stanley estimates that today’s ~$350 billion global space industry could grow to over $1 trillion by 2040. One of the areas of global competition—both among governments and the private sector – is low earth orbit (LEO) satellites. According to McKinsey, the base case estimate anticipates 27,000 active satellites in orbit by the end of 2030 (almost a four-fold increase from today), and its high-demand scenario, in which nearly all proposed constellations materialize, anticipates more than 65,000 satellites in orbit by that time.

In addition to the significant number of annual launches this necessitates, there is also a fairly frequent replacement cycle for these machines – according to the Congressional Business Office, LEOs are designed to last roughly five years. In 2024, we expect to see increased interest in Weebit ReRAM for these devices, in particular because of its high endurance, reliability, and immunity to gamma radiation.

Semiconductor investments continue, with education programs taking center stage.

In 2023, we saw governments around the world investing heavily in R&D and production, as increasing geopolitical tensions, supply chain challenges and ecosystem issues have driven semiconductors to become national priorities. Governments began to prioritize investments in and expansion of manufacturing facilities, product designs, EDA, IP and design services. These investments are beginning to have a real impact and will ramp up as we enter 2024. This points to an ongoing opportunity for companies that are supplying technologies for advanced SoCs, including embedded technologies like Weebit ReRAM IP.

However, building advanced fabrication facilities isn’t enough. According to Deloitte, by 2030, we will need more than one million additional skilled workers to meet semiconductor demand. Governments and corporations are beginning to invest in this area to ensure competitive advantage. In 2024, we’ll see an increase in local investment towards educating and training skilled workers. Relationships between industry and academia will be key to ensuring success.

More foundries will adopt ReRAM.

Last year in this column, we predicted that 2023 would be the year that embedded flash would hit a scaling wall, and embedded ReRAM would enter the mainstream. Indeed, we now see ReRAM being manufactured in end products. In 2024, we will see more foundries offering embedded ReRAM.

Analysts at the Yole Group predict that by 2028, ReRAM will overtake MRAM – another emerging NVM – with more 12″ equivalent wafer volume (60% vs. 25%). We expect to see this trend taking off in the coming year. ReRAM has significant advantages over MRAM such as cost, access time and immunity to electromagnetic fields.

As the leading independent provider of ReRAM investing in developing advanced ReRAM solutions, including those for AI, Weebit ReRAM will be the emerging NVM of choice for foundries looking offer a highly competitive solution to their customers.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 30th, 2024 at 12:34 pm. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.