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Despite 38% Sales Decline, DRAM Expected to Remain Largest IC Market

Wednesday, July 31st, 2019

NAND flash sales forecast to slide 32%, still ranked third-largest IC market this year.

IC Insights recently released its Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019.  The update included IC Insights’ ranking of the 33 largest IC product categories based on their expected sales and unit shipment volumes for 2019. The 33 IC product categories are those defined by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.  The five largest IC product categories are shown in Figure 1.

Despite a 38% sales decline expected this year, the DRAM market is forecast to remain the largest of all IC product categories again in 2019 with sales reaching $62.0 billion, down from $99.4 billion in 2018.  IC Insights believes the DRAM market will account for 17% of total IC sales in 2019.  By comparison, DRAM sales accounted for 23.6% of the total IC market in 2018.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The NAND flash market is forecast to slip from second to third position in the ranking this year with total sales falling 32% to $40.6 billion.  Taken together, the DRAM and NAND flash memory categories are forecast to account for 29% of the total $357.7 billion IC market in this year compared to 38% of the total IC market in 2018.
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Global GDP Impact on Worldwide IC Market Growth Forecast to Rise

Friday, July 26th, 2019

Excluding memory, correlation coefficient expected to reach a very high level of 0.94 in the 2018-2023 timeframe.

In its soon to be released Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019, IC Insights forecasts that the 2018-2023 global GDP and IC market correlation coefficient will reach 0.88 (0.94 when excluding memory), up from 0.87 in the 2010-2018 timeperiod.  IC Insights depicts the increasingly close correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth through 2018, as well as its forecast through 2023, in Figure 1.


Figure 1

From 2010-2018, the correlation coefficient between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth was 0.87 (0.92 excluding memory), a strong figure given that a perfect positive correlation is 1.0.  In the three decades previous to this timeperiod, the correlation coefficient ranged from a relatively weak 0.63 in the early 2000s to a negative correlation (i.e., essentially no correlation) of -0.10 in the 1990s.

IC Insights believes that the increasing number of mergers and acquisitions, leading to fewer major IC manufacturers and suppliers, is one of major changes in the supply base that illustrate the maturing of the industry and helping foster a closer correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth.
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U.S. Companies Dominate Worldwide IC Marketshare

Wednesday, June 19th, 2019

China and Taiwan companies register double-digit shares in the fabless segment but very low shares of the IDM IC segment.

IC Insights will release its 200+ page Mid-Year Update to the 2019 McClean Report next month.  A portion of the Mid-Year Update will examine the trends for worldwide IC company marketshare by headquarters location.

Figure 1 shows the 2018 IDM and fabless company shares of IC sales as well as the total worldwide share of the IC market by company headquarters location.

Figure 1

Figure 1

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After 2Q19 Bottom, Expectations Increase for a 3Q19 IC Market Rebound

Tuesday, May 21st, 2019

Notably, the IC market has never shown more than three sequential quarters of decline.

IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2019 McClean Report later this month.  This Update includes a discussion of the 1Q19 IC industry market results, a detailed quarterly IC market forecast for the remainder of this year, and a look at the top-25 1Q19 semiconductor suppliers.

Over its 60-year history, the IC industry is well known for its cyclical behavior.  Looking back to the mid-1970s, IC Insights cannot identify a period where the IC market declined for more than three quarters in a row.  Assuming the 2Q19 IC market registers a slight decline of 1% as compared to 1Q19, the 4Q18-2Q19 timeperiod would mark the sixth three-quarter IC market drop on record (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Figure 1

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Intel Recaptures Number One Quarterly Semi Supplier Ranking from Samsung

Thursday, May 16th, 2019

After surpassing Samsung in 4Q18, Intel further extends its lead in 1Q19.

IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2019 McClean Report later this month.  This Update includes a discussion of the 1Q19 IC industry market results, an updated quarterly forecast for the remainder of this year, and a look at the top-25 1Q19 semiconductor suppliers. The top-15 1Q19 semiconductor suppliers are covered in this research bulletin.

The top-15 worldwide semiconductor (IC and O S D—optoelectronic, sensor, and discrete) sales ranking for 1Q19 is shown in Figure 1.  It includes six suppliers headquartered in the U.S., three in Europe, two each in South Korea and Japan, and one each in Taiwan and China.

Figure 1

Figure 1

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Texas Instruments Widens Its Lead As World’s Top Analog IC Supplier

Thursday, May 9th, 2019

TI’s 2018 analog sales rise to $10.8 billion; Infineon moves into third position, ST posts strongest annual increase as top-10 suppliers collectively account for 60% of total analog market.

The 10 largest suppliers of analog ICs accounted for 60% of worldwide analog sales last year, or $36.1 billion, compared to nearly 61% in 2017, or about $33.0 billion, according to IC Insights’ 2018 rankings of leading semiconductor companies.   The April Update to IC Insights’ 2019 McClean Report ranks the top 50 semiconductor suppliers and lists leading companies in several major product categories, including DRAM, flash memory, microprocessors, microcontrollers, and analog ICs.  Figure 1 shows IC Insights’ ranking of the largest 10 analog suppliers in 2018.

Figure 1

 

Sony Easily Maintains Its Number 1 Ranking in the Diverse O-S-D Market

Wednesday, April 10th, 2019

Top-10 companies held 39% of the worldwide O-S-D market in 2018, the same level as in 2017.

IC Insights’ new 2019 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes was released at the end of March.  Among the O-S-D industry data included in the new 350-page report is an analysis of the top-30 O-S-D suppliers (the top-10 ranking is discussed in this Research Bulletin).

Companies selling optoelectronics currently dominate the ranking of the top-10 O-S-D suppliers.  Figure 1 shows that nine of the top-10 companies sell optoelectronics, while six offer sensor/actuator semiconductors, and five provide discrete products.  Only four of the top-10 companies sell products in all three O-S-D market segments.  The 10 largest suppliers in the ranking accounted for 39% of combined worldwide O-S-D revenues in 2018, which is the same percentage as in 2017 (in contrast, the top-10 IC suppliers held a 70% share of the total IC market in 2018).

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Intel Expected to Recapture #1 Semi Supplier Ranking in 2019

Thursday, March 7th, 2019

Steep memory market plunge likely to push Samsung’s 2019 semiconductor sales down by 20%.

IC Insights is currently updating its 2019-2023 semiconductor market forecasts that will be presented later this month in the March Update, the first monthly Update to the 500-page, 2019 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (released in January 2019).

For 2019, a steep 24% drop in the memory market is forecast to pull the total semiconductor market down by 7%.  With 83% of Samsung’s semiconductor sales being memory devices last year, the memory market downturn is expected to drag the company’s total semiconductor sales down by 20% this year.  Although Intel’s semiconductor sales are forecast to be relatively flat in 2019, the company is poised to regain the number 1 semiconductor supplier ranking this year (Figure 1), a position it held from 1993 through 2016.

Figure 1


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DRAM Growth Tops Industry Ranking in 2018; Outlook Dims for 2019

Thursday, December 13th, 2018
DRAM fastest growing market in four of past six years, demonstrating very cyclical market.
IC Insights is in the process of revising its forecast and analysis of the IC industry and will present its new findings in The McClean Report 2019, which will be published in January 2019.  Among the revisions is a complete update of forecast growth rates of the 33 main product categories classified by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization (WSTS) through the year 2023.

Topping the chart of fastest-growing products for 2018 is DRAM, which comes as no surprise given the strong rise of average selling prices in this segment over the past two years (Figure 1).  The 2018 DRAM market is expected to show an increase of 39%, a solid follow-up to the 77% growth in 2017. The number-one position is not unfamiliar territory for the DRAM market.  It was also the fastest-growing IC segment in 2013 and 2014.


Figure 1
Remarkably, DRAM has been at the top and near the bottom of this list over the past six years, demonstrating its very volatile and cyclical nature.  IC Insights forecasts that DRAM will rank nearly last in terms of market growth in 2019, with a 1% decrease in total sales.  After two strong years of growth, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—the world’s three primary DRAM suppliers—have expanded their manufacturing capacity and are beginning to ramp up production, bringing some much needed relief to strained supplies, especially for high-performance DRAM devices. At the same time, shipments of large-scale datacenter servers, which were a primary catalyst for much of the recent DRAM market surge, have begun to ease as uncertain economic and trade conditions factor into decisions about continuing with the strong build out.

NAND flash joins DRAM as another memory segment that has enjoyed very strong growth over the past two years (Figure 2).  Solid-state computing, particularly, has been a key driver for high-density, high-performance NAND flash even as mobile applications continue to be a significant driver. Meanwhile, automotive and computing special purpose logic devices have also been strong performers the past two years.  The top five IC markets listed for 2018 are the only product categories that are expected to surpasses the 17% growth rate of the total IC market this year.


Figure 2
The full list of IC product rankings and forecasts for the 2019-2023 timeperiod is included in The McClean Report 2019, which will be released in January 2019.

Report Details:  The 2019 McClean Report
The 2019 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, will be released in January 2019. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 200+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year.  An individual user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password.  A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.

As part of your 2019 subscription, you are entitled to free attendance at a McClean Report seminar (one seat for each copy purchased; company-wide licensees receive five free seats).  The schedule for next year’s McClean Report seminar tour is shown below.

Tuesday, January 22, 2019 — Scottsdale, Arizona
Thursday, January 24, 2019 — Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, January 29, 2019 — Boston, Massachusetts
To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research reports and services please visit our website: www.icinsights.com.
More Information Contact
For more information regarding this Research Bulletin, please contact Bill McClean, President at IC Insights. Phone: +1-480-348-1133, email: bill@icinsights.com

Outlook Remains Bright for Automotive Electronic Systems Growth

Monday, December 10th, 2018
Despite some high-profile setbacks with autonomous vehicles, auto electronic systems growth projects well; remains a hotbed for semiconductor growth.
Sales of automotive electronic systems are forecast to increase 7.0% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019, the highest growth rate in both years among the six major end-use applications for semiconductors.  Figure 1 shows that sales of automotive-related electronic systems are forecast to increase to $152 billion in 2018 from $142 billion in 2017, and are forecast to rise to $162 billion in 2019.  Furthermore, automotive electronic systems are expected to enjoy a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2017 through 2021, again topping all other major system categories, based on recent findings by IC Insights.

Figure 1
Overall, the automotive segment is expected to account for 9.4% of the $1.62 trillion total worldwide electronic systems market in 2018 (Figure 2), a slight increase from 9.1% in 2017. Automotive has increased only incrementally over the years, and is forecast to show only marginal gains as a percent of the total electronic systems market through 2021, when it is forecast to account for 9.9% of global electronic systems sales.  Though accounting for a rather small percentage of total electronic system marketshare in 2018, (larger only than the government/military category), automotive is expected to be the fastest-growing segment through 2021.

Figure 2
Technology features that are focused on self-driving (autonomous) vehicles, ADAS, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications, on-board safety, convenience, and environmental features, as well as ongoing interest in electric vehicles, continues to lift the market for automotive electronics systems, despite some highly publicized accidents involving self-driving vehicles this year that were at least partly blamed on technology miscues.

New advancements are more widely available onboard mid range and entry-level cars and as aftermarket products, which has further raised automotive system growth in recent years.  In the semiconductor world, this is particularly good news for makers of analog ICs, MCUs, and sensors since a great number of all of these devices are required in most of these automotive systems. It is worth noting that the Automotive—Special Purpose Logic category is forecast to increase 29% this year—second only to the DRAM market, and the Automotive—Application-Specific Analog market is forecast to jump 14% this year—as backup cameras, blind-spot (lane departure) detectors, and other “intelligent” systems are mandated or otherwise being added to more vehicles.  Meanwhile, memory (specifically, DRAM and flash memory) is increasingly playing a more critical role in the development of new automotive system solutions used in vehicles.

Report Details:  The McClean Report 2019
The 2019 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, will be released in January 2019.  A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 250+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year.  An individual user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password.  A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.

As part of your 2019 subscription, you are entitled to free attendance at a McClean Report seminar (one seat for each copy purchased; company-wide licensees receive five free seats).  The schedule for next year’s seminar tour is shown below.

Tuesday, January 22, 2019 — Scottsdale, Arizona
Thursday, January 24, 2019 — Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, January 29, 2019 — Boston, Massachusetts
To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research reports and services please visit our website: www.icinsights.com.
More Information Contact
For more information regarding this Research Bulletin, please contact Bill McClean, President at IC Insights. Phone: +1-480-348-1133, email: bill@icinsights.com



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