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Semi Industry Capex Forecast to Jump 24% and Reach Over $190 Billion This Year

Tuesday, March 1st, 2022

2020-2022 expected to be the first 3-year period of double-digit capex growth since 1993-1995.

Figure 1 shows that after surging 36% in 2021, semiconductor industry capital spending is forecast to jump 24% in 2022 to a new all-time high of $190.4 billion, up 86% from just three years earlier in 2019. Moreover, if capital spending increases by ≥10% in 2022, it would mark the first three-year period of double-digit spending increases in the semiconductor industry since the 1993-1995 timeperiod.


Figure 1

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3Q21 Earnings Outlooks Bode Well for Most Leading Semi Suppliers

Friday, September 10th, 2021

Memory suppliers, Sony, and TSMC benefitting from strong demand and supply shortages.

IC Insights’ recently released its compilation of third-quarter sales growth expectations for the top-25 semiconductor suppliers. For the third quarter of this year (ending in September), sales growth outlooks for the top-25 suppliers range from 16th-ranked Sony’s 34% increase at the high end, to Intel’s 3% decline on the low end.

Third-quarter growth expectations for the top-15 suppliers are shown in Figure 1.  In advance of an expected surge in demand for 5G smartphones during the upcoming holiday season, Qualcomm and Apple anticipate significant increases in their 3Q21 semiconductor sales.  Also, the big three memory IC suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—are each expected to post a 10% increase and Kioxia is anticipated to show an 11% jump in 3Q21 sales as demand remains strong for memory in data center servers, enterprise computing, and for 5G smartphones and related infrastructure.

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MEMS Semiconductors Strengthen After Holding Up Well in 2020

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2021

Sensors and actuators made with MEMS technology are forecast to grow by high double-digit percentages in the next several years after starting a recovery in 2H20, says new report. 

Sales of semiconductor sensors and actuators made with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) technology are expected to grow about 16% in 2021 to a record-high $15.9 billion after an 11% increase in 2020 during the economic havoc caused by the Covid-19 virus pandemic and the automotive industry’s worst year in decades, according to IC Insights’ 2021 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes.  Recovery growth in MEMS-based sensor/actuator products surged in the second half of 2020 when manufacturers quickly began to refill inventories after seeing signs of stabilization and recovery in key end-use markets, says the 350-page O-S-D Report. Between 2020 and 2025, sales of MEMS-based sensors and actuators are expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% to $24.1 billion with shipments rising by a CAGR of 13.4% to 32.1 billion units (Figure 1), based on the O-S-D Report’s five-year forecast.

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Samsung Expected to Recapture #1 Semi Supplier Ranking in 2Q21

Tuesday, May 4th, 2021

Intel’s lackluster performance and surging DRAM market forecast to put Samsung in the lead.

IC Insights is currently assembling its 1Q21 top-25 semiconductor supplier ranking, which includes company sales forecasts for 2Q21 that will be presented later this month in the May Update, the third monthly Update to the 500-page, 2021 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry.

As shown in Figure 1, Intel was locked in as the world’s top semiconductor manufacturer from 1993 through 2016. However, after nearly a quarter of a century, the semiconductor industry saw a new #1 supplier beginning in 2017 when the memory market surged and Samsung displaced Intel.  This unseating marked a milestone achievement not only for Samsung, but also for all other competing semiconductor producers who had tried for years to supplant Intel as the world’s largest supplier.

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China to Fall Far Short of its “Made-in-China 2025” Goal for IC Devices

Thursday, May 21st, 2020

Domestic content percentage forecast to be about one-third of its 70% 2025 target.

IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2020 McClean Report later this month.  This Update is part of a series of monthly updates to The McClean Report that will be released through November of this year.  The following evaluation of China’s IC market is an excerpt from the original McClean Report released in January.

IC production in China represented 15.7% of its $125 billion IC market in 2019, up only slightly from 15.1% five years earlier in 2014.  As shown in Figure 1, IC Insights forecasts that this share will increase by 5.0 percentage points to 20.7% in 2024 (one percentage point per year on average).

Figure 1

A very clear distinction should be made between China’s IC market and indigenous IC production in China.  As IC Insights has oftentimes stated, although China has been the largest consuming market for ICs since 2005, it does not necessarily mean that large increases in IC production within China would immediately follow, or ever follow.

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Virus Crisis Hits Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes.

Tuesday, May 5th, 2020

 

After 10 years of record-high sales, combined revenues for optoelectronics, sensors/actuators, and discrete semiconductors are expected to drop 6% in virus-plagued 2020, says the new O-S-D Report.

When 2020 began, global conditions pointed to single-digit percentage market growth this year for optoelectronics, sensors and actuators, and discrete semiconductors (known collectively as O-S-D devices), but the outlook suddenly deteriorated in the first quarter due to the worldwide outbreak of the Covid-19 coronavirus.  The virus crisis deepened by the end of March, resulting in IC Insights cutting its 2020 semiconductor forecast and changing the growth outlook for the next five years.  The revised forecast is contained in IC Insights’ new 2020 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes, which shows total O-S-D sales falling 6% this year, ending a decade-long string of record-high annual sales (Figure 1).

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Global Semiconductor Capex Forecast to Drop 3% Again This Year

Thursday, April 16th, 2020

Semiconductor producers hoping to keep capital spending plans intact despite virus outbreak.

Using its “baseline” assumptions shown in the soon-to-be-released April Update to the 2020 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR20), IC Insights is not lowering its current -3% 2020 semiconductor industry capital spending forecast (Figure 1) due to the Covid-19 outbreak.

Although essentially all of the risk to the current -3% semiconductor industry capital spending forecast for this year is to the downside, it is assumed that most spending will proceed as planned since the vast majority of the outlays are directed at long term goals of process technology advancements and/or additions to wafer start capacity.  However, if the Covid-19 outbreak is not contained in the first half of this year, significant cuts to current capital spending budgets will likely occur.

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Wafer Capacity by Feature Size Shows Rapid Growth at <10nm

Friday, October 18th, 2019

Cellphone and graphics processors drive demand for leading edge processes.

Leading-edge processes (<28nm) took over as the largest portion in terms of monthly installed capacity available in 2015.  By the end of 2019, <28nm capacity is forecast to represent about 49% of the IC industry’s total capacity, based on information in IC Insights’ Global Wafer Capacity 2019-2023 report. At the very leading edge, <10nm processes are now in volume production and are forecast to represent 5% of worldwide capacity in 2019.  The share of <10nm capacity is forecast to jump to 25% and become the largest capacity segment by 2023 (Figure 1).

Forcast Monthy Graph

Figure 1

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2019 Microprocessor Slump Snaps Nine Years of Record Sales

Friday, October 11th, 2019

MPU market being pulled down by weakness in smartphones and servers, as well as the fallout from the U.S.‑China trade war.  A modest rebound is expected in 2020, followed by new all-time high sales in 2021.

The microprocessor market’s string of nine straight record-high annual sales between 2010 and 2018 is expected to end this year with worldwide MPU revenue dropping 4% to about $77.3 billion because of weakness in smartphone shipments, excess inventories in data center computers, and the global fallout from the U.S.-China trade war, according to IC Insights’ recently updated forecast.  Microprocessor sales are expected to stage a modest rebound in 2020, growing 2.7% to $79.3 billion (Figure 1) and then are forecast to reach a new record-high level of about $82.3 billion in 2021, based on IC Insights’ outlook for MPUs in the Mid-Year Update to the 2019 McClean Report.

Figure 1

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Semiconductor Acquisitions Regain Momentum in 2019

Thursday, September 19th, 2019

This year’s merger and acquisition announcements are driven by deals in networking and wireless connectivity ICs and by suppliers adding products for automotive systems and other strong-growth end-use markets into the next decade.

After slowing in the past couple years, semiconductor merger and acquisition activity strengthened in the first eight months of 2019 with the combined value of about 20 M&A agreement announcements reaching $28.0 billion for the purchase of chip companies, business units, product lines, intellectual property (IP), and wafer fabs between January and the end of August.  An analysis in the September Update to IC Insights’ 2019 McClean Report shows the dollar value of semiconductor acquisition agreement announcements in the first eight months of 2019 surpassed the $25.9 billion total for all of 2018 and was close to topping the value in 2017 (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Figure 1

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