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Posts Tagged ‘Foundry Market’

China to Fall Far Short of its “Made-in-China 2025” Goal for IC Devices

Thursday, May 21st, 2020

Domestic content percentage forecast to be about one-third of its 70% 2025 target.

IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2020 McClean Report later this month.  This Update is part of a series of monthly updates to The McClean Report that will be released through November of this year.  The following evaluation of China’s IC market is an excerpt from the original McClean Report released in January.

IC production in China represented 15.7% of its $125 billion IC market in 2019, up only slightly from 15.1% five years earlier in 2014.  As shown in Figure 1, IC Insights forecasts that this share will increase by 5.0 percentage points to 20.7% in 2024 (one percentage point per year on average).

Figure 1

A very clear distinction should be made between China’s IC market and indigenous IC production in China.  As IC Insights has oftentimes stated, although China has been the largest consuming market for ICs since 2005, it does not necessarily mean that large increases in IC production within China would immediately follow, or ever follow.

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Virus Crisis Hits Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes.

Tuesday, May 5th, 2020

 

After 10 years of record-high sales, combined revenues for optoelectronics, sensors/actuators, and discrete semiconductors are expected to drop 6% in virus-plagued 2020, says the new O-S-D Report.

When 2020 began, global conditions pointed to single-digit percentage market growth this year for optoelectronics, sensors and actuators, and discrete semiconductors (known collectively as O-S-D devices), but the outlook suddenly deteriorated in the first quarter due to the worldwide outbreak of the Covid-19 coronavirus.  The virus crisis deepened by the end of March, resulting in IC Insights cutting its 2020 semiconductor forecast and changing the growth outlook for the next five years.  The revised forecast is contained in IC Insights’ new 2020 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes, which shows total O-S-D sales falling 6% this year, ending a decade-long string of record-high annual sales (Figure 1).

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Global Semiconductor Capex Forecast to Drop 3% Again This Year

Thursday, April 16th, 2020

Semiconductor producers hoping to keep capital spending plans intact despite virus outbreak.

Using its “baseline” assumptions shown in the soon-to-be-released April Update to the 2020 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR20), IC Insights is not lowering its current -3% 2020 semiconductor industry capital spending forecast (Figure 1) due to the Covid-19 outbreak.

Although essentially all of the risk to the current -3% semiconductor industry capital spending forecast for this year is to the downside, it is assumed that most spending will proceed as planned since the vast majority of the outlays are directed at long term goals of process technology advancements and/or additions to wafer start capacity.  However, if the Covid-19 outbreak is not contained in the first half of this year, significant cuts to current capital spending budgets will likely occur.

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Top 5 Share of Semiconductor Industry Capex to Set New Record in 2019

Tuesday, November 5th, 2019

Samsung and TSMC each expected to set new all-time highs in quarterly spending in 4Q19.

IC Insights’ November Update to The McClean Report 2019 will include a capital spending forecast for the major semiconductor companies for 2019 and 2020.  In January of next year, IC Insights will release The McClean Report 2020 and present its seminars that review the five-year forecasts for the IC industry.

The share of semiconductor industry capital spending held by the top five companies’ (i.e., Samsung, Intel, TSMC, SK Hynix, and Micron) is forecast to reach an all-time high of 68% this year, surpassing the previous record high of 67% recorded in 2013 and 2018 (Figure 1).  With the top five spenders holding only 25% of the total industry outlays in 1994, the trend of the big companies increasing their share of capital spending continues unabated.

  Figure 1

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Wafer Capacity by Feature Size Shows Rapid Growth at <10nm

Friday, October 18th, 2019

Cellphone and graphics processors drive demand for leading edge processes.

Leading-edge processes (<28nm) took over as the largest portion in terms of monthly installed capacity available in 2015.  By the end of 2019, <28nm capacity is forecast to represent about 49% of the IC industry’s total capacity, based on information in IC Insights’ Global Wafer Capacity 2019-2023 report. At the very leading edge, <10nm processes are now in volume production and are forecast to represent 5% of worldwide capacity in 2019.  The share of <10nm capacity is forecast to jump to 25% and become the largest capacity segment by 2023 (Figure 1).

Forcast Monthy Graph

Figure 1

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TSMC’s Leading-Edge Fab Investments Set Stage for Sale Surge in 2H19

Wednesday, September 25th, 2019

World’s largest foundry benefits from increasing demand and tight supplies of 7nm devices.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s heavy investments in advanced wafer-fab technology are set to pay off significantly for the world’s largest silicon foundry as it continues the production ramp of 7nm ICs in the second half of this year, according to an analysis in IC Insights’ September Update to the 2019 McClean Report.

Figure 1 provides an updated outlook for TSMC’s 2019 sales using quarterly revenue reported by the foundry in first half of this year and IC Insights’ projection for the second half.  As shown, the company has estimated its current full-year sales to be about flat with 2018, but its 2H19/1H19 sales are forecast to jump by 32%—more than three times the 10% growth rate expected for the entire IC industry in the second half of 2019, based on IC Insights’ projection.  There is little doubt that 7nm application processors for new smartphones from Apple and Huawei are driving the forecast for a strong second-half rebound in TSMC’s sales.


Figure 1

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Despite 38% Sales Decline, DRAM Expected to Remain Largest IC Market

Wednesday, July 31st, 2019

NAND flash sales forecast to slide 32%, still ranked third-largest IC market this year.

IC Insights recently released its Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019.  The update included IC Insights’ ranking of the 33 largest IC product categories based on their expected sales and unit shipment volumes for 2019. The 33 IC product categories are those defined by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.  The five largest IC product categories are shown in Figure 1.

Despite a 38% sales decline expected this year, the DRAM market is forecast to remain the largest of all IC product categories again in 2019 with sales reaching $62.0 billion, down from $99.4 billion in 2018.  IC Insights believes the DRAM market will account for 17% of total IC sales in 2019.  By comparison, DRAM sales accounted for 23.6% of the total IC market in 2018.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The NAND flash market is forecast to slip from second to third position in the ranking this year with total sales falling 32% to $40.6 billion.  Taken together, the DRAM and NAND flash memory categories are forecast to account for 29% of the total $357.7 billion IC market in this year compared to 38% of the total IC market in 2018.
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Intel Recaptures Number One Quarterly Semi Supplier Ranking from Samsung

Thursday, May 16th, 2019

After surpassing Samsung in 4Q18, Intel further extends its lead in 1Q19.

IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2019 McClean Report later this month.  This Update includes a discussion of the 1Q19 IC industry market results, an updated quarterly forecast for the remainder of this year, and a look at the top-25 1Q19 semiconductor suppliers. The top-15 1Q19 semiconductor suppliers are covered in this research bulletin.

The top-15 worldwide semiconductor (IC and O S D—optoelectronic, sensor, and discrete) sales ranking for 1Q19 is shown in Figure 1.  It includes six suppliers headquartered in the U.S., three in Europe, two each in South Korea and Japan, and one each in Taiwan and China.

Figure 1

Figure 1

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Sony Easily Maintains Its Number 1 Ranking in the Diverse O-S-D Market

Wednesday, April 10th, 2019

Top-10 companies held 39% of the worldwide O-S-D market in 2018, the same level as in 2017.

IC Insights’ new 2019 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes was released at the end of March.  Among the O-S-D industry data included in the new 350-page report is an analysis of the top-30 O-S-D suppliers (the top-10 ranking is discussed in this Research Bulletin).

Companies selling optoelectronics currently dominate the ranking of the top-10 O-S-D suppliers.  Figure 1 shows that nine of the top-10 companies sell optoelectronics, while six offer sensor/actuator semiconductors, and five provide discrete products.  Only four of the top-10 companies sell products in all three O-S-D market segments.  The 10 largest suppliers in the ranking accounted for 39% of combined worldwide O-S-D revenues in 2018, which is the same percentage as in 2017 (in contrast, the top-10 IC suppliers held a 70% share of the total IC market in 2018).

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Advances in Logic IC Process Technology Move Forward

Friday, February 22nd, 2019

Despite increasing development costs, IC manufacturers continue to make great strides.

The advancement of the IC industry hinges on the ability of IC manufacturers to continue offering more performance and functionality for the money.  As mainstream CMOS processes reach their theoretical, practical, and economic limits, lowering the cost of ICs (on a per-function or per-performance basis) is more critical and challenging than ever. The 500-page, 2019 edition of IC Insights’ McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (released in January 2019) shows that there is more variety than ever among the logic-oriented process technologies that companies offer.  Figure 1 lists several of the leading advanced logic technologies that companies are presently using. Derivative versions of each process generation between major nodes have become regular occurrences.

Figure 1

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