Posts Tagged ‘DRAM’
Thursday, December 13th, 2018
DRAM fastest growing market in four of past six years, demonstrating very cyclical market.
IC Insights is in the process of revising its forecast and analysis of the IC industry and will present its new findings in The McClean Report 2019, which will be published in January 2019. Among the revisions is a complete update of forecast growth rates of the 33 main product categories classified by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization (WSTS) through the year 2023.
Topping the chart of fastest-growing products for 2018 is DRAM, which comes as no surprise given the strong rise of average selling prices in this segment over the past two years (Figure 1). The 2018 DRAM market is expected to show an increase of 39%, a solid follow-up to the 77% growth in 2017. The number-one position is not unfamiliar territory for the DRAM market. It was also the fastest-growing IC segment in 2013 and 2014.
Figure 1
Remarkably, DRAM has been at the top and near the bottom of this list over the past six years, demonstrating its very volatile and cyclical nature. IC Insights forecasts that DRAM will rank nearly last in terms of market growth in 2019, with a 1% decrease in total sales. After two strong years of growth, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—the world’s three primary DRAM suppliers—have expanded their manufacturing capacity and are beginning to ramp up production, bringing some much needed relief to strained supplies, especially for high-performance DRAM devices. At the same time, shipments of large-scale datacenter servers, which were a primary catalyst for much of the recent DRAM market surge, have begun to ease as uncertain economic and trade conditions factor into decisions about continuing with the strong build out.
NAND flash joins DRAM as another memory segment that has enjoyed very strong growth over the past two years (Figure 2). Solid-state computing, particularly, has been a key driver for high-density, high-performance NAND flash even as mobile applications continue to be a significant driver. Meanwhile, automotive and computing special purpose logic devices have also been strong performers the past two years. The top five IC markets listed for 2018 are the only product categories that are expected to surpasses the 17% growth rate of the total IC market this year.
Figure 2The full list of IC product rankings and forecasts for the 2019-2023 timeperiod is included in The McClean Report 2019, which will be released in January 2019.
Report Details: The 2019 McClean Report
The 2019 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, will be released in January 2019. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 200+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year. An individual user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.
As part of your 2019 subscription, you are entitled to free attendance at a McClean Report seminar (one seat for each copy purchased; company-wide licensees receive five free seats). The schedule for next year’s McClean Report seminar tour is shown below.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019 — Scottsdale, Arizona
Thursday, January 24, 2019 — Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, January 29, 2019 — Boston, Massachusetts
To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research reports and services please visit our website: www.icinsights.com.
More Information Contact
For more information regarding this Research Bulletin, please contact Bill McClean, President at IC Insights. Phone: +1-480-348-1133, email: bill@icinsights.com
Tags: automotive, DRAM, ICManufacturing, industrial, McClean Report, NAND, Semiconductors
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Monday, December 10th, 2018
Despite some high-profile setbacks with autonomous vehicles, auto electronic systems growth projects well; remains a hotbed for semiconductor growth.
Sales of automotive electronic systems are forecast to increase 7.0% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019, the highest growth rate in both years among the six major end-use applications for semiconductors. Figure 1 shows that sales of automotive-related electronic systems are forecast to increase to $152 billion in 2018 from $142 billion in 2017, and are forecast to rise to $162 billion in 2019. Furthermore, automotive electronic systems are expected to enjoy a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2017 through 2021, again topping all other major system categories, based on recent findings by IC Insights.
Figure 1
Overall, the automotive segment is expected to account for 9.4% of the $1.62 trillion total worldwide electronic systems market in 2018 (Figure 2), a slight increase from 9.1% in 2017. Automotive has increased only incrementally over the years, and is forecast to show only marginal gains as a percent of the total electronic systems market through 2021, when it is forecast to account for 9.9% of global electronic systems sales. Though accounting for a rather small percentage of total electronic system marketshare in 2018, (larger only than the government/military category), automotive is expected to be the fastest-growing segment through 2021.
Figure 2
Technology features that are focused on self-driving (autonomous) vehicles, ADAS, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications, on-board safety, convenience, and environmental features, as well as ongoing interest in electric vehicles, continues to lift the market for automotive electronics systems, despite some highly publicized accidents involving self-driving vehicles this year that were at least partly blamed on technology miscues.
New advancements are more widely available onboard mid range and entry-level cars and as aftermarket products, which has further raised automotive system growth in recent years. In the semiconductor world, this is particularly good news for makers of analog ICs, MCUs, and sensors since a great number of all of these devices are required in most of these automotive systems. It is worth noting that the Automotive—Special Purpose Logic category is forecast to increase 29% this year—second only to the DRAM market, and the Automotive—Application-Specific Analog market is forecast to jump 14% this year—as backup cameras, blind-spot (lane departure) detectors, and other “intelligent” systems are mandated or otherwise being added to more vehicles. Meanwhile, memory (specifically, DRAM and flash memory) is increasingly playing a more critical role in the development of new automotive system solutions used in vehicles.
Report Details: The McClean Report 2019
The 2019 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, will be released in January 2019. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 250+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year. An individual user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.
As part of your 2019 subscription, you are entitled to free attendance at a McClean Report seminar (one seat for each copy purchased; company-wide licensees receive five free seats). The schedule for next year’s seminar tour is shown below. Tuesday, January 22, 2019 — Scottsdale, Arizona
Thursday, January 24, 2019 — Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, January 29, 2019 — Boston, Massachusetts
To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research reports and services please visit our website: www.icinsights.com.
More Information Contact
For more information regarding this Research Bulletin, please contact Bill McClean, President at IC Insights. Phone: +1-480-348-1133, email: bill@icinsights.com
Tags: automotive, communications, computer, DRAM, Foundry Market, IC, IC manufacturing, ICManufacturing, McClean Report, MCU, roadmap, Semiconductors, sensors
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Tuesday, September 18th, 2018
13 IC products forecast to show double-digit growth, led by a 39% surge in DRAM sales.
In its Mid-Year Update to the 2018 McClean Report, IC Insights updated its forecast of sales growth for each of the 33 major IC product categories defined by WSTS (Figure 1). IC Insights now projects that seven product categories will exceed the 16% growth rate expected from the total IC market this year. For the second consecutive year, the DRAM market is forecast to top all IC product segments with 39% growth. Overall, 13 product categories are forecast to experience double-digit growth and 28 total IC product categories are expected to post positive growth this year, down slightly from 29 segments in 2017.
Rising average selling prices for DRAM continued to boost the DRAM market through the first half of the year and into August. However, IC Insights believes the DRAM ASP (and subsequent market growth) is at or near its peak, as a big rise in DRAM capital expenditures for planned capacity upgrades and expansions is likely put the brakes on steep market growth beginning in 2019.
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Tags: DRAM, DSP, IC, IC manufacturing, McClean Report, MCU, NAND, SRAM, wireless comm
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Tuesday, August 28th, 2018
Flash memory is forecast to represent the largest share of capital spending while DRAM capex grows at the highest rate this year.
IC Insights forecasts total semiconductor capital expenditures will rise to $102.0 billion this year, marking the first time that the industry has spent more than $100 billion on capital expenditures in one year. The $102.0 billion spending level represents a 9% increase over $93.3 billion spent in 2017, which was a 38% surge over 2016.
Figure 1 shows that more than half of industry capital spending is forecast for memory production—primarily DRAM and flash memory—including upgrades to existing wafer fab lines and brand new manufacturing facilities. Collectively, memory is forecast to account for 53% of semiconductor capital expenditures this year. The share of capital spending for memory devices has increase substantially in six years, nearly doubling from 27% ($14.7 billion) in 2013 to a forecast of 53% ($54.0 billion) of total industry capex in 2018, which amounts to a 2013-2018 CAGR of 30%.
 Figure 1 (more…)
Tags: Analog, DRAM, Flash/NV, foundry, Foundry Market, IC manufacturing, ICManufacturing, McClean Report, MPU, Semiconductors
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Thursday, August 9th, 2018
With 24% IC marketshare, DRAM expected to account for nearly one in four IC sales dollars spent.
IC Insights recently released its Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2018. The update includes a revised forecast of the largest and fastest-growing IC product categories this year. Sales and unit growth rates are shown for each of the 33 IC product categories defined by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization in the Mid-Year Update.
The five largest IC product categories in terms of sales revenue and unit shipments are shown in Figure 1. With forecast sales of $101.6 billion, (39% growth) the DRAM market is expected to be the largest of all IC product categories in 2018, repeating the ranking it held last year. If the sales level is achieved, it would mark the first time an individual IC product category has surpassed $100.0 billion in annual sales. The DRAM market is forecast to account for 24% of IC sales in 2018. The NAND flash market is expected to achieve the second-largest revenue level with total sales of $62.6 billion this year. Taken together, the two memory categories are forecast to account for 38% of the total $428.0 billion IC market in 2018.
 Figure 1
For many years, the standard PC/server MPU category topped the list of largest IC product segments, but with ongoing increases in memory average selling prices, the MPU category is expected to slip to the third position in 2018. In the Mid-Year Update, IC Insights slightly raises its forecast for 2018 sales in the MPU category to show revenues increasing 5% to an all-time high of $50.8 billion, after a 6% increase in 2017 to the current record high of $48.5 billion. Helping drive sales this year are AI-controlled systems and data-sharing applications over the Internet of Things. Cloud computing, machine learning, and the expected tidal wave of data traffic coming from connected systems and sensors is also fueling MPU sales growth this year.
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Tags: Analog, DRAM, Forecast, ICManufacturing, McClean Report, MPU, NAND, Spcl Purp logic
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Tuesday, May 22nd, 2018
IC Insights raises its full-year spending growth forecast for this year from 8% to 14%.
IC Insights recently released its May Update to the 2018 McClean Report. This Update included a look at the top-25 1Q18 semiconductor suppliers, a discussion of the 1Q18 IC industry market results, and an update of the 2018 capital spending forecast by company.Overall, the capital spending story for 2018 is becoming much more positive as compared with the forecast presented in IC Insights’ March Update to The McClean Report 2018 (MR18). In the March Update, IC Insights forecast an 8% increase in semiconductor industry capital spending for this year. However, as shown in Figure 1, IC Insights has raised its expectations for 2018 capital spending by six percentage points to a 14% increase. If this increase occurs, it would be the first time that semiconductor industry capital outlays exceeded $100 billion. The worldwide 2018 capital spending forecast figure is 53% higher than the spending just two years earlier in 2016.
Although Samsung says it still does not have a full-year capital spending forecast for this year it did say it will spend “less” in semiconductor capital outlays in 2018 as compared to 2017, when it spent $24.2 billion. However, as of 1Q18, with regard to its capex, its “foot is still on the gas!” Samsung spent $6.72 billion in capex for its semiconductor division in 1Q18, slightly higher than the average of the previous three quarters. This figure is almost 4x the amount the company spent just two years earlier in 1Q16! Over the past four quarters, Samsung has spent an incredible $26.6 billion in capital outlays for its semiconductor group. Wow!
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Tags: China, DRAM, McClean Report, positive, samsung, Semiconductors, SK Hynix, South Korea
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Wednesday, March 14th, 2018
Increased expectations for the DRAM and NAND flash markets spur upward revision.
IC Insights’ latest market, unit, and average selling price forecasts for 33 major IC product segments for 2018 through 2022 is included in the March Update to the 2018 McClean Report (MR18). The Update also includes an analysis of the major semiconductor suppliers’ capital spending plans for this year.The biggest adjustments to the original MR18 IC market forecasts were to the memory market; specifically the DRAM and NAND flash segments. The DRAM and NAND flash memory market growth forecasts for 2018 have been adjusted upward to 37% for DRAM (13% shown in MR18) and 17% for NAND flash (10% shown in MR18).
The big increase in the DRAM market forecast for 2018 is primarily due to a much stronger ASP expected for this year than was originally forecast. IC Insights now forecasts that the DRAM ASP will register a 36% jump in 2018 as compared to 2017, when the DRAM ASP surged by an amazing 81%. Moreover, the NAND flash ASP is forecast to increase 10% this year, after jumping by 45% in 2017. In contrast to strong DRAM and NAND flash ASP increases, 2018 unit volume growth for these product segments is expected to be up only 1% and 6%, respectively.
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Tags: DRAM, ICManufacturing, McClean Report, NAND, Semiconductors
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Tuesday, March 13th, 2018
Skyrocketing DRAM prices potentially open the door for startup Chinese competitors.
Historically, the DRAM market has been the most volatile of the major IC product segments. A good example of this was displayed over the past two years when the DRAM market declined 8% in 2016 only to surge by 77% in 2017! The March Update to the 2018 McClean Report (to be released later this month) will fully detail IC Insights’ latest forecast for the 2018 DRAM and total IC markets.In the 34-year period from 1978-2012, the DRAM price-per-bit declined by an average annual rate of 33%. However, from 2012 through 2017, the average DRAM price-per-bit decline was only 3% per year! Moreover, the 47% full-year 2017 jump in the price-per-bit of DRAM was the largest annual increase since 1978, surpassing the previous high of 45% registered 30 years ago in 1988!
In 2017, DRAM bit volume growth was 20%, half the 40% rate of increase registered in 2016. For 2018, each of the three major DRAM producers (e.g., Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) have stated that they expect DRAM bit volume growth to once again be about 20%. However, as shown in Figure 1, monthly year-over-year DRAM bit volume growth averaged only 13% over the nine-month period of May 2017 through January 2018.
Figure 1 also plots the monthly price-per-Gb of DRAM from January of 2017 through January of 2018. As shown, the DRAM price-per-Gb has been on a steep rise, with prices being 47% higher in January 2018 as compared to one year earlier in January 2017. There is little doubt that electronic system manufacturers are currently scrambling to adjust and adapt to the skyrocketing cost of memory.
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Tags: Cost, DRAM, McClean Report
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