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Posts Tagged ‘China’

Taiwan Maintains Edge as Largest Base for IC Wafer Capacity

Thursday, July 15th, 2021

As a percent of worldwide total, China achieves largest increase in fab capacity at expense of all other regions, but still trails Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan in installed capacity.

IC Insights’ Global Wafer Capacity 2021-2025 report breaks out the world’s installed monthly wafer capacity by geographic region (or country).  Figure 1 shows the installed capacity by region as of December of 2020.

To clarify what the data represents, each regional number is the total installed monthly capacity of fabs located in that region regardless of the headquarters location for the companies that own the fabs.  For example, the wafer capacity that South Korea-based Samsung has installed in the U.S. is counted in the North America capacity total, not in the South Korea capacity total.  The ROW “region” consists primarily of Singapore, Israel, and Malaysia, but also includes countries/regions such as Russia, Belarus, and Australia.


Figure 1

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China to Fall Far Short of its “Made-in-China 2025” Goal for IC Devices

Thursday, May 21st, 2020

Domestic content percentage forecast to be about one-third of its 70% 2025 target.

IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2020 McClean Report later this month.  This Update is part of a series of monthly updates to The McClean Report that will be released through November of this year.  The following evaluation of China’s IC market is an excerpt from the original McClean Report released in January.

IC production in China represented 15.7% of its $125 billion IC market in 2019, up only slightly from 15.1% five years earlier in 2014.  As shown in Figure 1, IC Insights forecasts that this share will increase by 5.0 percentage points to 20.7% in 2024 (one percentage point per year on average).

Figure 1

A very clear distinction should be made between China’s IC market and indigenous IC production in China.  As IC Insights has oftentimes stated, although China has been the largest consuming market for ICs since 2005, it does not necessarily mean that large increases in IC production within China would immediately follow, or ever follow.

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Virus Crisis Hits Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes.

Tuesday, May 5th, 2020

 

After 10 years of record-high sales, combined revenues for optoelectronics, sensors/actuators, and discrete semiconductors are expected to drop 6% in virus-plagued 2020, says the new O-S-D Report.

When 2020 began, global conditions pointed to single-digit percentage market growth this year for optoelectronics, sensors and actuators, and discrete semiconductors (known collectively as O-S-D devices), but the outlook suddenly deteriorated in the first quarter due to the worldwide outbreak of the Covid-19 coronavirus.  The virus crisis deepened by the end of March, resulting in IC Insights cutting its 2020 semiconductor forecast and changing the growth outlook for the next five years.  The revised forecast is contained in IC Insights’ new 2020 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes, which shows total O-S-D sales falling 6% this year, ending a decade-long string of record-high annual sales (Figure 1).

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Global Semiconductor Capex Forecast to Drop 3% Again This Year

Thursday, April 16th, 2020

Semiconductor producers hoping to keep capital spending plans intact despite virus outbreak.

Using its “baseline” assumptions shown in the soon-to-be-released April Update to the 2020 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR20), IC Insights is not lowering its current -3% 2020 semiconductor industry capital spending forecast (Figure 1) due to the Covid-19 outbreak.

Although essentially all of the risk to the current -3% semiconductor industry capital spending forecast for this year is to the downside, it is assumed that most spending will proceed as planned since the vast majority of the outlays are directed at long term goals of process technology advancements and/or additions to wafer start capacity.  However, if the Covid-19 outbreak is not contained in the first half of this year, significant cuts to current capital spending budgets will likely occur.

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U.S. Companies Dominate Worldwide IC Marketshare

Wednesday, June 19th, 2019

China and Taiwan companies register double-digit shares in the fabless segment but very low shares of the IDM IC segment.

IC Insights will release its 200+ page Mid-Year Update to the 2019 McClean Report next month.  A portion of the Mid-Year Update will examine the trends for worldwide IC company marketshare by headquarters location.

Figure 1 shows the 2018 IDM and fabless company shares of IC sales as well as the total worldwide share of the IC market by company headquarters location.

Figure 1

Figure 1

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China Market Drives Essentially All Pure-Play Foundry Growth in 2018

Tuesday, January 8th, 2019

Cryptocurrency boom in 1H18 helped China’s pure-play foundry market surge 41% last year.

IC Insights is in the process of completing its forecast and analysis of the IC industry and will present its new findings in The McClean Report 2019, which will be published later this month.  Among the semiconductor industry data included in the new 400+ page report is an in-depth analysis of the IC foundry market and its suppliers.

With the recent rise of the fabless IC companies in China, the demand for foundry services has also risen in that country.  In total, pure-play foundry sales in China jumped by 30% in 2017 to $7.6 billion, triple the 9% increase for the total pure-play foundry market that year.  Moreover, in 2018, pure-play foundry sales to China surged by an amazing 41%, over 8x the 5% increase for the total pure-play foundry market last year.

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China Forecast to Account for 90% of Pure-Play Foundry Market Growth in 2018

Wednesday, September 26th, 2018
Driven by cryptocurrency device demand, TSMC’s China sales are expected to surge by 79% this year.
IC Insights’ September Update to The McClean Report shows that as a result of a 51% forecasted increase in the China pure-play foundry market this year (Figure 1), China’s total share of the 2018 pure-play foundry market is expected to jump by five percentage points to 19%, exceeding the share held by the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. Overall, China is forecast to be responsible for 90% of the $4.2 billion increase in the total pure-play foundry market in 2018.
Figure 1

Figure 1

With the recent rise of the fabless IC companies in China, the demand for foundry services has also risen in that country.  In total, pure-play foundry sales in China jumped by 26% last year to $7.5 billion, almost triple the 9% increase for the total pure-play foundry market.  Moreover, in 2018, pure-play foundry sales to China are forecast to surge by an amazing 51%, more than 6x the 8% increase expected for the total pure-play foundry market this year.

Although all of the major pure-play foundries are expected to register double-digit sales increases to China this year, the biggest increase by far is forecast to come from pure-play foundry giant TSMC.  Following a 44% jump in 2017, TSMC’s sales into China are forecast to surge by another 79% in 2018 to $6.7 billion. As a result, China is expected to be responsible for essentially all of TSMC’s sales increase this year with China’s share of the company’s sales more than doubling from 9% in 2016 to 19% in 2018.

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Semi Capex Forecast to Exceed $100B for the First Time in 2018

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2018
IC Insights raises its full-year spending growth forecast for this year from 8% to 14%.
IC Insights recently released its May Update to the 2018 McClean Report.  This Update included a look at the top-25 1Q18 semiconductor suppliers, a discussion of the 1Q18 IC industry market results, and an update of the 2018 capital spending forecast by company.Overall, the capital spending story for 2018 is becoming much more positive as compared with the forecast presented in IC Insights’ March Update to The McClean Report 2018 (MR18).  In the March Update, IC Insights forecast an 8% increase in semiconductor industry capital spending for this year. However, as shown in Figure 1, IC Insights has raised its expectations for 2018 capital spending by six percentage points to a 14% increase.  If this increase occurs, it would be the first time that semiconductor industry capital outlays exceeded $100 billion.  The worldwide 2018 capital spending forecast figure is 53% higher than the spending just two years earlier in 2016.

Although Samsung says it still does not have a full-year capital spending forecast for this year it did say it will spend “less” in semiconductor capital outlays in 2018 as compared to 2017, when it spent $24.2 billion.  However, as of 1Q18, with regard to its capex, its “foot is still on the gas!”  Samsung spent $6.72 billion in capex for its semiconductor division in 1Q18, slightly higher than the average of the previous three quarters.  This figure is almost 4x the amount the company spent just two years earlier in 1Q16!  Over the past four quarters, Samsung has spent an incredible $26.6 billion in capital outlays for its semiconductor group. Wow!

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