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Despite 38% Sales Decline, DRAM Expected to Remain Largest IC Market

Wednesday, July 31st, 2019

NAND flash sales forecast to slide 32%, still ranked third-largest IC market this year.

IC Insights recently released its Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019.  The update included IC Insights’ ranking of the 33 largest IC product categories based on their expected sales and unit shipment volumes for 2019. The 33 IC product categories are those defined by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.  The five largest IC product categories are shown in Figure 1.

Despite a 38% sales decline expected this year, the DRAM market is forecast to remain the largest of all IC product categories again in 2019 with sales reaching $62.0 billion, down from $99.4 billion in 2018.  IC Insights believes the DRAM market will account for 17% of total IC sales in 2019.  By comparison, DRAM sales accounted for 23.6% of the total IC market in 2018.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The NAND flash market is forecast to slip from second to third position in the ranking this year with total sales falling 32% to $40.6 billion.  Taken together, the DRAM and NAND flash memory categories are forecast to account for 29% of the total $357.7 billion IC market in this year compared to 38% of the total IC market in 2018.
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Memory ICs to Account for 53% of Total 2018 Semi Capex

Tuesday, August 28th, 2018
Flash memory is forecast to represent the largest share of capital spending while DRAM capex grows at the highest rate this year.

IC Insights forecasts total semiconductor capital expenditures will rise to $102.0 billion this year, marking the first time that the industry has spent more than $100 billion on capital expenditures in one year.  The $102.0 billion spending level represents a 9% increase over $93.3 billion spent in 2017, which was a 38% surge over 2016.

Figure 1 shows that more than half of industry capital spending is forecast for memory production—primarily DRAM and flash memory—including upgrades to existing wafer fab lines and brand new manufacturing facilities. Collectively, memory is forecast to account for 53% of semiconductor capital expenditures this year. The share of capital spending for memory devices has increase substantially in six years, nearly doubling from 27% ($14.7 billion) in 2013 to a forecast of 53% ($54.0 billion) of total industry capex in 2018, which amounts to a 2013-2018 CAGR of 30%.

Figure 1

Figure 1

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DRAM Sales Forecast to Top $100 Billion This Year with 39% Market Growth

Thursday, August 9th, 2018
With 24% IC marketshare, DRAM expected to account for nearly one in four IC sales dollars spent.

IC Insights recently released its Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2018.  The update includes a revised forecast of the largest and fastest-growing IC product categories this year.  Sales and unit growth rates are shown for each of the 33 IC product categories defined by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization in the Mid-Year Update.

The five largest IC product categories in terms of sales revenue and unit shipments are shown in Figure 1.  With forecast sales of $101.6 billion, (39% growth) the DRAM market is expected to be the largest of all IC product categories in 2018, repeating the ranking it held last year.  If the sales level is achieved, it would mark the first time an individual IC product category has surpassed $100.0 billion in annual sales.  The DRAM market is forecast to account for 24% of IC sales in 2018.  The NAND flash market is expected to achieve the second-largest revenue level with total sales of $62.6 billion this year. Taken together, the two memory categories are forecast to account for 38% of the total $428.0 billion IC market in 2018.

Figure 1

Figure 1

For many years, the standard PC/server MPU category topped the list of largest IC product segments, but with ongoing increases in memory average selling prices, the MPU category is expected to slip to the third position in 2018.  In the Mid-Year Update, IC Insights slightly raises its forecast for 2018 sales in the MPU category to show revenues increasing 5% to an all-time high of $50.8 billion, after a 6% increase in 2017 to the current record high of $48.5 billion.  Helping drive sales this year are AI-controlled systems and data-sharing applications over the Internet of Things.  Cloud computing, machine learning, and the expected tidal wave of data traffic coming from connected systems and sensors is also fueling MPU sales growth this year.

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