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IC Insights
IC Insights
IC Insights, Inc. is a leading semiconductor market research company headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. Founded in 1997, IC Insights offers complete analysis of the integrated circuit (IC), optoelectronic, sensor/actuator, and discrete semiconductor markets with coverage including current … More »

Covid-19 Expected to Limit Growth Rates For Many IC Products in 2020

 
August 5th, 2020 by IC Insights

NAND flash, DRAM, computer CPU, and embedded MPUs show improvement for 2020, but consumers and businesses moving cautiously forward with system purchases.

IC Insights recently released its Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2020.  The update includes IC Insights’ ranking of revenue growth rates for the 33 IC product categories defined by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.

Figure 1 shows the distribution of growth rates for the 33 IC product categories in 2019 and IC Insights’ forecast for 2020. Growth rates across most IC segments are expected to improve this year, but not greatly. Eight product categories, led by NAND flash with an expected market increase of 27%, are forecast to see sales gains this year. In 2019, only six IC product categories experienced sales growth.  Five product categories are forecast to expand at or above the total IC market growth rate of 3% this year, including both NAND flash and DRAM, which were the two worst growth segments in 2019.


Figure 1

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NAND Flash, DRAM Forecast to Remain Largest IC Markets in 2020

 
July 30th, 2020 by IC Insights

The two memory categories expected to account for one-third of total IC sales this year.

IC Insights recently released its Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2020, which ranked the 33 largest IC product categories based on their expected sales and unit shipment volumes. The 33 IC product categories are those defined by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.  The five largest of these IC product segments in terms of sales volume and shipments are shown in Figure 1.

DRAM and NAND flash are expected to repeat as the two largest IC segments again in 2020 after holding the same positions in 2019. With expected sales growth of 3.2% this year, the DRAM market is forecast to reach nearly $64.6 billion, 15% greater than the NAND flash market, which is expected to be the second-largest IC segment in 2020.


Figure 1

IC Insights forecasts DRAM will account for 17.5% of the total $368.3 billion IC market in 2020.  The DRAM market achieved its highest-ever sales volume in 2018 when it reached $99.4 billion. That year, DRAM sales accounted for 23.6% of the total IC market.

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RF/Microwave to Lead Power Transistor Recovery in 2021

 
July 24th, 2020 by IC Insights

The total power transistor market is expected to fall 7% in 2020 because of the Covid-19 virus crisis, but sales are forecast to rebound 7% next year and reach a new record high in 2022, says O-S-D Report.

After three straight years of record-high sales, the power transistor market is forecast to drop 7% in 2020 because of the economic fallout from the global Covid-19 virus health crisis that has driven down demand across a broad range of systems.  A recovery in power transistors is now expected to occur in 2021 with worldwide sales growing 7% to $16.9 billion and unit shipments rising 9% to 59.0 billion, according to IC Insights’ 2020 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes. The 2020 edition of the O-S-D Report shows the power transistor market returning to record-high territory in 2022, when sales are forecast to grow 5% to $17.7 billion, which would top the current annual peak of $17.1 billion set in 2019.

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1Q/4Q “Direction Indicator” Signals Rebound in the 2020 IC Market

 
July 16th, 2020 by IC Insights

After dropping by 15% last year, the worldwide IC market is expected to show single-digit growth in 2020, even with the disastrous effects of Covid-19 on the global economy.

IC Insights will release its 200+ page Mid-Year Update to the 2020 McClean Report later this month. The Mid-Year Update revises IC Insights’ worldwide economic and IC industry forecasts through 2024 that were published in The McClean Report 2020, released in January.

Figure 1 shows the 1Q/4Q IC market direction indicator that IC Insights developed 23 years ago.


Figure 1

From 1984-2019, the average seasonal sequential decline in the 1Q IC market was 2%.   In 1Q20, the IC market was down just 3% as compared to 4Q19, slightly below the 36-year average.  Excluding the years after the severe IC industry downturns of 1985 and 2001, IC Insights believes that the 1Q/4Q sequential quarterly IC market change is a good indicator of the direction and intensity of the annual IC market change.

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Taiwan Edges South Korea as Largest Base for IC Wafer Capacity

 
June 24th, 2020 by IC Insights

China capacity expansion forecast to push the county into second place in the regional rankings in 2022, trailing only Taiwan in size.

In its Global Wafer Capacity 2020-2024 report, IC Insights breaks down the world’s installed monthly IC wafer capacity by geographic region (or country).  Figure 1 shows the installed IC capacity by region as of December of 2019.

To clarify what the data represents, each regional number is the total installed monthly capacity of fabs located in that region regardless of the headquarters location for the companies that own the fabs.  For example, the wafer capacity that South Korea-based Samsung has installed in the U.S. is counted in the North America capacity total, not in the South Korea capacity total.  The ROW “region” consists primarily of Singapore, Israel, and Malaysia, but also includes countries/regions such as Russia, Belarus, and Australia.

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Automotive IC Market Forecast With Strongest CAGR Through 2024

 
June 17th, 2020 by IC Insights

Automotive IC segment to show robust average annual growth but still hold less than a 10% share in 2024. Communications and Computer segments remain largest applications.

IC Insights released its June Update to the 2020 McClean Report earlier this month.  This Update included a 2018-2024 IC database that segmented the IC market by major product type including Consumer, Auto, Computer, Industrial, Communications, and Government/Military end-use applications in the Americas, Europe, Japan, China, and Asia-Pacific regions.
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CMOS Image Sensors to Resume Record Run in 2021

 
June 11th, 2020 by IC Insights

The fallout from the Covid-19 virus crisis in 2020 is expected to lower CMOS image sensor sales for the first time in 10 years, but new record-high revenues are seen next year, says new O-S-D Report.

Driven by camera phones and the rapid spread of new embedded applications, CMOS image sensors were the fastest growing semiconductor product category in the last decade with sales quadrupling between 2010 and 2019 to reach $18.4 billion last year.  CMOS image sensors set nine consecutive record-high sales levels in the last nine years, but that streak is expected to end in 2020 with revenues falling 4% and unit growth being nearly flat as a result of the economic fallout from the Covid-19 virus crisis and a global recession.

CMOS image sensor sales are forecast to drop to $17.8 billion in 2020 after surging 30% in 2019, according to IC Insights’ new 2020 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes.  The 350-page report shows CMOS image sensor sales rebounding 15% in 2021 to reach a new all-time high of $20.4 billion.  The report’s forecast assumes containment of the coronavirus occurs by mid-year and market demand gradually recovering during the second half of 2020.

Sampling of 2Q Semiconductor Sales Guidance Now At -5%

 
June 4th, 2020 by IC Insights

Six companies expect an increase in 2Q sales while 15 companies anticipate flat or declining sales.

As part of its May Update to the 2020 McClean Report, IC Insights compiled a list of semiconductor companies that have provided 2Q20 sales guidance. The list included companies from across all geographic regions and all product categories.

Because of uncertainty regarding the impact of Covid-19 on business in the second half of this year, many semiconductor companies have not provided full year 2020 guidance.  However, several provided an outlook for 2Q20 (Figure 1).  Of those that issued quarterly guidance, most expanded the range of their projections to be wider than normal due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.  The numbers shown in Figure 1 represent the mid-point of the guidance.

Collectively, the 21 companies on the list anticipate a sequential sales decline of 5% in the second quarter of 2020.  Despite tentative economic conditions, six companies expect to see their sales rise in 2Q, and 15 anticipate a sales decline.
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Texas Instruments Maintains Firm Grip As World’s Top Analog IC Supplier

 
May 29th, 2020 by IC Insights

TI’s 2019 analog marketshare grew to 19% and ST climbed to fourth place as the top-10 suppliers collectively accounted for 62% of total analog sales..

The 10 largest suppliers of analog ICs collectively accounted for 62% or $34.2 billion of the $55.2 billion analog IC market in 2019. That was an increase of two points from 60% in 2018, according to data compiled and presented in the April Update to the 2020 McClean Report.  The update ranked the top semiconductor companies by sales in several major product categories, including DRAM, flash memory, microprocessors, microcontrollers, and analog ICs. Figure 1 shows IC Insights’ ranking of the largest 10 analog suppliers in 2019.

Figure 1

With analog sales of $10.2 billion and 19% marketshare, Texas Instruments held a firm grip on its position as the leading supplier of analog devices in 2019.  TI’s analog sales declined by about $600 million compared to 2018 yet it still had more than 10x the sales of tenth-ranked Renesas.  TI’s 2019 analog revenue accounted for 80% of its $12.8 billion in IC sales and 75% of its $13.7 billion in total semiconductor revenue.

In 2019, TI’s analog sales were directed to industrial applications (36% of revenue), smartphones and other personal electronics (23% of revenue), and automotive applications (21% of revenue).  All three application segments are highly profitable and afford it the best opportunities for growth now and into the future, the company said.

Ranked in second place was Analog Devices (ADI), which saw its 2019 analog IC sales decrease 6% to $5.2 billion, accounting for 10% global analog marketshare.  ADI said its devices, including many of the products it obtained through its 2017 acquisition of Linear Technology, address opportunities “from sensor-to-cloud, DC to 100 gigahertz and beyond, and nanowatts to kilowatts.”  Its 2019 sales by end-use application were segmented into industrial (50%), communication (21%), automotive (16%), and consumer (13%).

Each of Europe’s three major IC suppliers—Infineon, ST, and NXP—was a top-10 analog supplier in 2019. Collectively, they accounted for 18% of global analog marketshare, two points more than in 2018. Infineon was the highest ranked European analog supplier (third place) with sales of nearly $3.8 billion. Infineon continues to grow its presence in automotive (44% of 2019 sales) and power management (30% of 2019 sales) applications.  Industrial power control (18%) and chip card and security (8%) rounded out its other major end-use applications.

Though ST’s analog IC revenue slipped 3% in 2019, it moved up one position to fourth place in the ranking.  ST’s analog sales fell to $3.3 billion (6% marketshare). ST’s analog focus is on motion control (motor driver ICs and high-voltage driver ICs), automation (intelligent power switches), and energy management (powerline communication ICs) applications.  One of the key growth areas for NXP is automotive where its analog sales are essential components in emerging systems such as LiDAR, vehicle networks, and 5G.  NXP was ranked number six with sales of $2.6 billion (5% marketshare).

Swapping places with ST and slipping into fifth place in 2019 was Skyworks Solutions.  After achieving record analog sales of $3.7 billion in 2018, the company’s analog sales fell 13% in 2019.  The decrease in sales was partially blamed on the U.S.-China trade war. China was the second-largest regional market for Skyworks’ sales in 2018 and 2019.  Many of Skyworks’ customers are manufacturers of smartphones and other communications and computing equipment and have a large presence in China.  Despite the downturn, the company accelerated the ramp of its portfolio of new analog chips and chipsets for the launch of 5G smartphones, wireless infrastructure applications, and wireless gaming headsets.

After three consecutive years of double-digit increases in its analog sales, ON Semiconductor saw its analog sales drop 13% in 2019. ON has been the beneficiary of significant growth in auto, industrial, and cloud power applications that have been key drivers for its analog revenue growth the past several years.

Ninth-ranked Microchip was the only top-10 analog supplier to see an increase in its analog sales, which increased 10% to $1.5 billion. Microchip completed its acquisition of Microsemi in May 2018, which helped provide it with a nice boost to full-year analog sales in 2019.

Report Details:  The 2020 McClean Report
Additional details on sales rankings for the leading IC suppliers by product type (e.g., DRAM, flash memory, analog, MPU, MCU, etc.) are provided in the April Update to The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including the 200+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year.  An individual user license to The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password.  A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.

China to Fall Far Short of its “Made-in-China 2025” Goal for IC Devices

 
May 21st, 2020 by IC Insights

Domestic content percentage forecast to be about one-third of its 70% 2025 target.

IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2020 McClean Report later this month.  This Update is part of a series of monthly updates to The McClean Report that will be released through November of this year.  The following evaluation of China’s IC market is an excerpt from the original McClean Report released in January.

IC production in China represented 15.7% of its $125 billion IC market in 2019, up only slightly from 15.1% five years earlier in 2014.  As shown in Figure 1, IC Insights forecasts that this share will increase by 5.0 percentage points to 20.7% in 2024 (one percentage point per year on average).

Figure 1

A very clear distinction should be made between China’s IC market and indigenous IC production in China.  As IC Insights has oftentimes stated, although China has been the largest consuming market for ICs since 2005, it does not necessarily mean that large increases in IC production within China would immediately follow, or ever follow.

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