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IC Insights
IC Insights, Inc. is a leading semiconductor market research company headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. Founded in 1997, IC Insights offers complete analysis of the integrated circuit (IC), optoelectronic, sensor/actuator, and discrete semiconductor markets with coverage including current … More »

Wafer Capacity by Feature Size Shows Rapid Growth at <10nm

 
October 18th, 2019 by IC Insights

Cellphone and graphics processors drive demand for leading edge processes.

Leading-edge processes (<28nm) took over as the largest portion in terms of monthly installed capacity available in 2015.  By the end of 2019, <28nm capacity is forecast to represent about 49% of the IC industry’s total capacity, based on information in IC Insights’ Global Wafer Capacity 2019-2023 report. At the very leading edge, <10nm processes are now in volume production and are forecast to represent 5% of worldwide capacity in 2019.  The share of <10nm capacity is forecast to jump to 25% and become the largest capacity segment by 2023 (Figure 1).

Forcast Monthy Graph

Figure 1

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2019 Microprocessor Slump Snaps Nine Years of Record Sales

 
October 11th, 2019 by IC Insights

MPU market being pulled down by weakness in smartphones and servers, as well as the fallout from the U.S.‑China trade war.  A modest rebound is expected in 2020, followed by new all-time high sales in 2021.

The microprocessor market’s string of nine straight record-high annual sales between 2010 and 2018 is expected to end this year with worldwide MPU revenue dropping 4% to about $77.3 billion because of weakness in smartphone shipments, excess inventories in data center computers, and the global fallout from the U.S.-China trade war, according to IC Insights’ recently updated forecast.  Microprocessor sales are expected to stage a modest rebound in 2020, growing 2.7% to $79.3 billion (Figure 1) and then are forecast to reach a new record-high level of about $82.3 billion in 2021, based on IC Insights’ outlook for MPUs in the Mid-Year Update to the 2019 McClean Report.

Figure 1

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TSMC’s Leading-Edge Fab Investments Set Stage for Sale Surge in 2H19

 
September 25th, 2019 by IC Insights

World’s largest foundry benefits from increasing demand and tight supplies of 7nm devices.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s heavy investments in advanced wafer-fab technology are set to pay off significantly for the world’s largest silicon foundry as it continues the production ramp of 7nm ICs in the second half of this year, according to an analysis in IC Insights’ September Update to the 2019 McClean Report.

Figure 1 provides an updated outlook for TSMC’s 2019 sales using quarterly revenue reported by the foundry in first half of this year and IC Insights’ projection for the second half.  As shown, the company has estimated its current full-year sales to be about flat with 2018, but its 2H19/1H19 sales are forecast to jump by 32%—more than three times the 10% growth rate expected for the entire IC industry in the second half of 2019, based on IC Insights’ projection.  There is little doubt that 7nm application processors for new smartphones from Apple and Huawei are driving the forecast for a strong second-half rebound in TSMC’s sales.


Figure 1

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Semiconductor Acquisitions Regain Momentum in 2019

 
September 19th, 2019 by IC Insights

This year’s merger and acquisition announcements are driven by deals in networking and wireless connectivity ICs and by suppliers adding products for automotive systems and other strong-growth end-use markets into the next decade.

After slowing in the past couple years, semiconductor merger and acquisition activity strengthened in the first eight months of 2019 with the combined value of about 20 M&A agreement announcements reaching $28.0 billion for the purchase of chip companies, business units, product lines, intellectual property (IP), and wafer fabs between January and the end of August.  An analysis in the September Update to IC Insights’ 2019 McClean Report shows the dollar value of semiconductor acquisition agreement announcements in the first eight months of 2019 surpassed the $25.9 billion total for all of 2018 and was close to topping the value in 2017 (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Figure 1

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CMOS Image Sensors Stay on Stairway to Record Revenues

 
August 28th, 2019 by IC Insights

Economic slowdown and U.S.-China trade war will not stop CMOS image sensors from continuing their string of record sales and shipments going back to 2011, says report.

Despite an expected slowdown in growth this year and in 2020, the CMOS image sensor market is forecast to continue reaching record-high sales and unit volumes through 2023 with the spread of digital-imaging applications offsetting weakness in the global economy and the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war. CMOS image sensor sales are projected to rise 9% in 2019 to an all-time high of $15.5 billion, followed by a 4% increase in 2020 to $16.1 billion (Figure 1), according to IC Insights’ 2019 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes.

Figure 1

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Top-15 Semiconductor Suppliers’ Sales Fall by 18% in 1H19

 
August 20th, 2019 by IC Insights

Sony was the only top-15 semiconductor supplier to register year-over-year growth in 1H19.

IC Insights released its August Update to the 2019 McClean Report earlier this month. This Update included Part 1 of an in-depth analysis of the foundry industry, an updated forecast for semiconductor capital spending this year, and a ranking of the top-25 1H19 semiconductor suppliers and their 3Q19 sales outlook. The top-15 1H19 semiconductor suppliers are covered in this research bulletin.

The top-15 worldwide semiconductor (IC and O-S-D—optoelectronic, sensor, and discrete) sales ranking for 1H19 is shown in Figure 1. It includes six suppliers headquartered in the U.S., three in Europe, and two each in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

Figure 1

Figure 1

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Microcontrollers Will Regain Growth After 2019 Slump

 
August 14th, 2019 by IC Insights

The far-flung MCU market is expected to contract by 6% because of an overall slowdown in electronic systems, falloff in car purchases, and the U.S.-China trade war, says Mid-Year Update.

After reaching record-high sales in the last two years, the microcontroller (MCU) market slid lower in the first half of 2019 because of overall weakness in electronic systems, a slowdown in automobile sales, and no letup in the trade war between the U.S. and China.  In the first six months of this year, worldwide sales of microcontrollers declined about 13% compared to the first half of 2018 while MCU unit shipments fell 14%, according to IC Insights’ Mid-Year Update to the 2019 McClean Report on integrated circuits.

With the MCU market showing signs of stabilizing at the midpoint of 2019, microcontroller sales are expected to pull out of the double-digit percentage slump in the next six months and end this year with a 5.8% decline to $16.5 billion compared to the all-time high of $17.6 billion in 2018 (Figure 1).   Worldwide MCU unit shipments are expected to drop 4% in 2019 to 26.9 billion from 28.1 billion in 2018, says the 200-page Mid-Year Update.


Figure 1

In 2020, the microcontroller market is expected to stage a modest rebound after the 2019 decline, growing 3.2% next year to about $17.1 billion, while MCU shipments are projected to increase over 7% and set a new record-high level of 28.9 billion units (surpassing the current annual peak of 28.1 billion reached in 2018).  IC Insights’ Mid-Year Update forecast shows microcontroller sales rising by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% in the 2018-2023 forecast, reaching $21.3 billion in 2023.  MCU unit shipments are projected to grow by a CAGR of 6.3% in the five-year forecast period to 38.2 billion in 2023.

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Despite 38% Sales Decline, DRAM Expected to Remain Largest IC Market

 
July 31st, 2019 by IC Insights

NAND flash sales forecast to slide 32%, still ranked third-largest IC market this year.

IC Insights recently released its Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019.  The update included IC Insights’ ranking of the 33 largest IC product categories based on their expected sales and unit shipment volumes for 2019. The 33 IC product categories are those defined by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.  The five largest IC product categories are shown in Figure 1.

Despite a 38% sales decline expected this year, the DRAM market is forecast to remain the largest of all IC product categories again in 2019 with sales reaching $62.0 billion, down from $99.4 billion in 2018.  IC Insights believes the DRAM market will account for 17% of total IC sales in 2019.  By comparison, DRAM sales accounted for 23.6% of the total IC market in 2018.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The NAND flash market is forecast to slip from second to third position in the ranking this year with total sales falling 32% to $40.6 billion.  Taken together, the DRAM and NAND flash memory categories are forecast to account for 29% of the total $357.7 billion IC market in this year compared to 38% of the total IC market in 2018.
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Global GDP Impact on Worldwide IC Market Growth Forecast to Rise

 
July 26th, 2019 by IC Insights

Excluding memory, correlation coefficient expected to reach a very high level of 0.94 in the 2018-2023 timeframe.

In its soon to be released Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019, IC Insights forecasts that the 2018-2023 global GDP and IC market correlation coefficient will reach 0.88 (0.94 when excluding memory), up from 0.87 in the 2010-2018 timeperiod.  IC Insights depicts the increasingly close correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth through 2018, as well as its forecast through 2023, in Figure 1.


Figure 1

From 2010-2018, the correlation coefficient between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth was 0.87 (0.92 excluding memory), a strong figure given that a perfect positive correlation is 1.0.  In the three decades previous to this timeperiod, the correlation coefficient ranged from a relatively weak 0.63 in the early 2000s to a negative correlation (i.e., essentially no correlation) of -0.10 in the 1990s.

IC Insights believes that the increasing number of mergers and acquisitions, leading to fewer major IC manufacturers and suppliers, is one of major changes in the supply base that illustrate the maturing of the industry and helping foster a closer correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth.
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Semi Content in Electronic Systems Forecast to Drop to 26.4% in 2019

 
July 18th, 2019 by IC Insights

Falling IC ASPs to cause semiconductor content to plunge this year after setting a record high of 31.1% last year.

In its upcoming Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019 (to be released at the end of July), IC Insights forecasts that the 2019 global electronic systems market will grow 4% to $1,680 billion. In contrast, the worldwide semiconductor market is expected to drop by 12% this year to $443.8 billion after exceeding the $500.0 billion level for the first time last year.  If the 2019 forecasts come to fruition, the average semiconductor content in an electronic system will drop to 26.4% after setting the all-time record of 31.1% last year (Figure 1).


Figure 1 Read the rest of Semi Content in Electronic Systems Forecast to Drop to 26.4% in 2019




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