IC Insights 
IC Insights
IC Insights, Inc. is a leading semiconductor market research company headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. Founded in 1997, IC Insights offers complete analysis of the integrated circuit (IC), optoelectronic, sensor/actuator, and discrete semiconductor markets with coverage including current … More » Virus Crisis Hits Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes.May 5th, 2020 by IC Insights
After 10 years of record-high sales, combined revenues for optoelectronics, sensors/actuators, and discrete semiconductors are expected to drop 6% in virus-plagued 2020, says the new O-S-D Report. When 2020 began, global conditions pointed to single-digit percentage market growth this year for optoelectronics, sensors and actuators, and discrete semiconductors (known collectively as O-S-D devices), but the outlook suddenly deteriorated in the first quarter due to the worldwide outbreak of the Covid-19 coronavirus. The virus crisis deepened by the end of March, resulting in IC Insights cutting its 2020 semiconductor forecast and changing the growth outlook for the next five years. The revised forecast is contained in IC Insights’ new 2020 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes, which shows total O-S-D sales falling 6% this year, ending a decade-long string of record-high annual sales (Figure 1). Read the rest of Virus Crisis Hits Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes. IC Unit Shipments Forecast to Display First-Ever Back-to-Back DeclineApril 22nd, 2020 by IC Insights
A rare decline in IC unit shipments in 2019 expected to be followed by another drop in 2020. Using its “baseline” assumptions shown in the April Update to the 2020 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR20), IC Insights forecasts that worldwide IC unit shipments will register their first-ever back-to-back annual decline in 2020. From 2013 through 2018, IC unit shipments were on a respectable growth path with an 8% increase logged in 2013, a 9% jump registered in 2014, a 5% increase displayed in 2015, a 7% increase shown in 2016, a double-digit growth rate of 15% in 2017, and a 10% increase in 2018. In contrast to the double-digit increases in 2017 and 2018, 2019 marked only the fifth time in the history of the IC industry that IC unit shipments registered a decline (Figure 1).  Figure 1 Read the rest of IC Unit Shipments Forecast to Display First-Ever Back-to-Back Decline Global Semiconductor Capex Forecast to Drop 3% Again This YearApril 16th, 2020 by IC Insights
Semiconductor producers hoping to keep capital spending plans intact despite virus outbreak. Using its “baseline” assumptions shown in the soon-to-be-released April Update to the 2020 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR20), IC Insights is not lowering its current -3% 2020 semiconductor industry capital spending forecast (Figure 1) due to the Covid-19 outbreak. Although essentially all of the risk to the current -3% semiconductor industry capital spending forecast for this year is to the downside, it is assumed that most spending will proceed as planned since the vast majority of the outlays are directed at long term goals of process technology advancements and/or additions to wafer start capacity. However, if the Covid-19 outbreak is not contained in the first half of this year, significant cuts to current capital spending budgets will likely occur. Read the rest of Global Semiconductor Capex Forecast to Drop 3% Again This Year Global IC Market Forecast Lowered From 3% to -4%April 10th, 2020 by IC Insights
Coronavirus pandemic further reduces worldwide GDP and IC market outlooks. When 2020 started, global economic conditions pointed to single-digit percentage sales growth in the IC market after it fell by 15% in 2019, based on worldwide market data compiled by IC Insights for the 2020 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR20). However, the world abruptly changed in 1Q20 with the rapid outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, which shut down nearly all countries and paralyzed global markets beginning in March 2020. Figure 1 depicts the changes made to IC Insights’ 2020 total IC market forecasts as compared to the original MR20 forecast presented in January of this year.
Read the rest of Global IC Market Forecast Lowered From 3% to -4% 100 IC Wafer Fabs Closed or Repurposed Since 2009March 26th, 2020 by IC Insights
Hardest hit are ≤200mm wafer fabs, 70% of closures in Japan and North America. Over the past decade, the IC industry has been paring down its older capacity as manufacturers have consolidated or transitioned to the fab-lite or fabless business models. In its recently released Global Wafer Capacity 2020-2024 report, IC Insights shows that due to the surge of merger and acquisition activity in the middle of this decade and with more companies producing IC devices using sub-20nm process technology, suppliers have eliminated inefficient wafer fabs. Since 2009, semiconductor manufacturers around the world have closed or repurposed 100 wafer fabs, according to findings in the new report. Figure 1 shows the number of fabs closed by geographic region while Figure 2 shows a distribution of those fabs by wafer size and year.  Figure 1 Read the rest of 100 IC Wafer Fabs Closed or Repurposed Since 2009 U.S. IC Companies Maintain Global Marketshare LeadMarch 20th, 2020 by IC Insights
Propelled by 51% share of IDM sales and 65% share of fabless sales, U.S. companies captured 55% of the total worldwide IC market in 2019. Regional marketshares of IDMs (companies operating wafer fabs), fabless companies, and total IC sales were led by U.S. headquartered companies in 2019, according to data presented in the recently released March Update to The McClean Report 2020. Figure 1 shows U.S. companies held 55% of the total worldwide IC market in 2019 followed by the South Korean companies with a 21% share, down six percentage points from 2018. Taiwanese companies, on the strength of their fabless company IC sales, held 6% of total IC sales, one point less than the European companies.
South Korean and Japanese companies have an extremely weak presence in the fabless IC segment and the Taiwanese and Chinese companies have a noticeably low share of the IDM portion of the IC market. Overall, U.S.-headquartered companies showed the most balance with regard to IDM, fabless, and total IC industry marketshare. “Black Swan” Event Triggers Revision to 2020 IC Market ForecastMarch 10th, 2020 by IC Insights
“Black Swan” is a commonly used phrase in the world of finance to describe an event that is unexpected and unknowable. The recent surge of the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) and its anticipated negative impact on the global economy and IC market definitely fits the definition of a Black Swan event. Such events typically cause a great deal of uncertainty and that is certainly the case today. Over a decade ago, Jeff Immelt, then-CEO of General Electric, coined the term “reset economy.” He used this phrase to describe what he expected to be a very different world following the financial meltdown and ensuing global economic crisis of 2008-2009. Fast forward to 2020. IC Insights believes that this “reset” philosophy can be applied to the global IC industry this year following the current worldwide disruption to trade and business and the expected subsequent slowdown of the global economy due to the Covid-19 outbreak. After enduring a steep market decline in 2019, most believed the IC industry was poised for a reasonably robust recovery in 2020. In fact, January 2020 global IC sales were up a solid 79% from one year earlier in January 2019. IC Insights had originally forecast an 8% increase for the 2020 IC market in its McClean Report 2020 that was released this past January. Read the rest of “Black Swan” Event Triggers Revision to 2020 IC Market Forecast Transistor Count Trends Continue to Track with Moore’s LawMarch 5th, 2020 by IC Insights
Though growth rates in some product categories have slowed, doubling of transistors per chip every two years remains a guideline that the industry continues to follow. The primary yardstick by which the IC industry measures its technological performance and progress remains Moore’s Law that states there is a doubling of the number of transistors per chip every two years. It pertains to the growth rate of components per chip, but it is sometimes generalized to describe the exponential growth in raw computational power achieved with each new generation of ICs. IC Insights’ 2020 edition of The McClean Report (released in January) shows how over the past five decades, DRAMs, flash memories, microprocessors, and graphics processors have tracked the curve Moore predicted (Figure 1).
Read the rest of Transistor Count Trends Continue to Track with Moore’s Law Semiconductor Units To Rebound, Exceed 1 Trillion Devices Again in 2020February 27th, 2020 by IC Insights
Though rising 7%, total semiconductor units forecast to fall short of all-time record. Annual semiconductor unit shipments, including integrated circuits and optoelectronics, sensors, and discrete (O-S-D) devices are forecast to rise 7% in 2020 and surpass one trillion units for the second time in history, based on data presented in the new, 2020 edition of IC Insights’ McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, released in January 2020. The 7% increase to 1,036.3 billion total semiconductor shipments expected in 2020 follows an 8% decline in 2019 and 7% growth in 2018, the year that semiconductor shipments reached 1,046.0 billion units—a record high that is expected to remain in place through at least this year (Figure 1). Starting with 32.6 billion units in 1978 and ending in 2020, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for semiconductor units is forecast to be 8.6%, an impressive annual growth rate over 42 years, given the cyclical and often volatile nature of the semiconductor industry.  Figure 1 Read the rest of Semiconductor Units To Rebound, Exceed 1 Trillion Devices Again in 2020 Revenue per Wafer Rising As Demand Grows for sub-7nm IC ProcessesFebruary 21st, 2020 by IC Insights
Despite high development costs, using smaller nodes yields larger revenue per wafer. The success and proliferation of integrated circuits has largely hinged on the ability of IC manufacturers to continue offering more performance and functionality for the money. Driving down the cost of ICs (on a per-function or per-performance basis) is inescapably tied to a growing arsenal of technologies and wafer-fab manufacturing disciplines as mainstream CMOS processes reach their theoretical, practical, and economic limits. Based on data presented in IC Insights’ new edition of The McClean Report (released in January 2020), many IC companies are now designing high-performance microprocessors, application processors, and other advanced logic devices based on 10nm and 7nm process technology. Some of the current iterations from logic and foundry suppliers are shown in Figure 1.  Figure 1 |
|
|
|||||
|
|
|||||
|
|||||
