Fueled by economic recovery and the transition to a digital economy, memory IC sales are forecast to reach $180.4 billion in 2022, exceeding the previous record high set in 2018.

IC Insights recently updated its forecast for 33 major IC product categories, including DRAM and NAND flash, in its April Update to the 2021 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR21).  The updated forecast shows that after a steep drop in 2019, sales of memory ICs rebounded 15% during COVID-plagued 2020. Following up on that increase, stronger DRAM pricing is expected to lift total memory revenue 23% this year to $155.2 billion.  The average selling price for DRAM jumped 8% sequentially in the first quarter of this year, and nearly all of the leading memory suppliers stated in their most recent quarterly financial presentations that they expected stronger demand in 2Q21.

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Economic recovery from the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, new 5G smartphones, machine vision, and more embedded cameras will drive up CMOS image sensor sales to record high levels through 2025, says new O-S-D report.

The high-flying market for CMOS image sensors hit a speed bump in 2020 with the global outbreak of the Covid-19 virus crisis significantly cutting sales growth in this large optoelectronics product category to 3% last year compared to an annual average of nearly 16% since 2010, according to IC Insights’ new 2021 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes.  The new 350-page O-S-D Report forecasts that CMOS image sensor revenues will regain strong high-growth momentum in 2021, climbing 19% to $22.8 billion, which will be a 10th consecutive record-high level for worldwide sales since 2010 (Figure 1).

Figure 1

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Fabless Suppliers Held a Record 33% of the 2020 IC Market

Fabless IC suppliers registered a strong 24% surge in sales last year as compared to only an 8% increase by the IDMs.

IC Insights’ April Update to the 2021 McClean Report describes how the sales growth rates of fabless IC companies versus IDM (integrated device manufacturers) IC suppliers have historically been very different (Figure 1). Typically, the sales growth rate registered by the fabless IC suppliers is better than that displayed by the IDMs. In fact, the first year on record that IDM IC sales growth outpaced fabless IC company sales growth was 2010 when IDM IC sales grew 35% and fabless IC company sales grew 29%.

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Propelled by 50% share of IDM sales and 64% share of fabless sales, U.S. companies captured 55% of the total worldwide IC market in 2020.

Regional marketshares of IDMs (companies operating wafer fabs), fabless companies, and total IC sales were led by U.S. headquartered companies in 2020, according to the March Update to The McClean Report 2021.

Figure 1 shows U.S. companies held 55% of the total worldwide IC market in 2020 followed by the South Korean companies with a 21% share.  Taiwanese companies, on the strength of their fabless company IC sales, held 7% of total IC sales, one point greater than the European and Japanese companies. As shown, Chinese companies held only 5% of the global IC market in 2020.

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A 13% increase is expected to lift total semiconductor shipments to a new record high.

Total semiconductor unit shipments, which include integrated circuits as well as optoelectronics, sensor/actuator, and discrete (O-S-D) devices, are forecast to rise 13% in 2021, to 1,135.3 billion (1.1353 trillion) units to set a new all-time annual record, based on data presented in the 2021 edition of IC Insights’ McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, which was released in January 2021.  It would mark the third time that semiconductor units have surpassed one trillion units in a calendar year—the first time being in 2018 (Figure 1).

The 13% increase to 1,135.3 billion semiconductor units follows a 3% increase in 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic was wreaking havoc across many segments of the economy.  From 1978, when 32.6 billion units were shipped, through 2021, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for semiconductor units is forecast to be 8.6%—an impressive 43-year annual growth rate even though the growth rate has waned for many key semiconductor applications such as PCs and cellphones.  The strong CAGR also demonstrates that new market drivers continue to emerge that fuel demand for more semiconductors.

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Rising market expectations are being witnessed across most IC product lines from Analog to Logic to DRAM.

IC Insights will release its March Update to the 2021 edition of The McClean Report later this month.  In addition to presenting its 2021 IC market forecast revision, the Update will also present listings of the top 40 IDM and top 50 fabless IC suppliers in 2020.  This data was used to determine the “final” worldwide IC market figure for 2020, which was raised from 10% to 13% growth as compared to 2019.

The remaining portion of the March Update will include newly revised 2021-2025 forecasts by product type as well as updated semiconductor industry capital spending forecasts by company for 2021.

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Despite high development costs, smaller nodes bring greater revenue per wafer.

The success and proliferation of integrated circuits has largely hinged on the ability of IC manufacturers to continue offering more performance and functionality for the money.  Driving down the cost of ICs (on a per-function or per-performance basis) is inescapably tied to a growing arsenal of technologies and wafer-fab manufacturing disciplines as mainstream CMOS processes reach their theoretical, practical, and economic limits.

Data presented in IC Insights’ 2021 edition of The McClean Report (released in January 2021), notes that many fabless IC companies are clamoring to have their leading-edge devices, including high-performance microprocessors, low-power application processors, and other advanced logic devices, fabricated using 7nm and 5nm process nodes.  Some of the current iterations from logic and foundry suppliers are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1

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