Even with more fabs, strong unit growth will keep industry capacity utilization at 93.0% in 2022.

IC Insights’ February 1Q Update to The McClean Report 2022 includes an overview of IC industry capacity and wafer start trends from 2002 through 2026.  This bulletin provides a brief summary.

The volatile nature of the IC industry is reflected by large swings in annual wafer starts.  Over the past five years, for example, annual wafer start growth rates have ranged from -4.7% in 2019 to 19.0% growth in 2021.  The industry’s installed wafer capacity also fluctuates according to market conditions, but the changes are not usually as dramatic as they are for wafer starts. The annual wafer capacity growth rates over the past five years have ranged from 4.0% in 2016 to 8.5% in 2021 (Figure 1).

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Unit growth returns to the long-term growth rate after an enormous 22% surge in 2021.

IC Insights’ May 2Q Update to The McClean Report 2022 will be released next month.  In the 2Q Update, IC Insights forecasts worldwide IC unit shipments will increase 9.2% this year to 427.7 billion units and resume tracking with the long-term IC unit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4%. The 9.2% gain anticipated this year follows the large, 22% increase experienced during the economic recovery of 2021—the largest increase in IC unit growth since the boom year of 2010.

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U.S. companies captured 54% of the total worldwide IC market in 2021, propelled by a 47% share of IDM sales and a 68% share of fabless sales.

Regional marketshares of IDMs (companies with wafer fabs), fabless companies, and total IC sales were led by U.S. headquartered companies in 2021, according to the 2Q Update to The McClean Report 2022 that will be released in May.

Figure 1 shows the 2021 IDM and fabless company shares of IC sales as well as the total worldwide share of the IC market by company headquarters location (pure-play foundries are excluded from this data).

Figure 1

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Average selling prices for MCUs are expected to move moderately higher through 2026.  Tight supplies caused ASPs to jump 10% in 2021—the biggest increase in 25 years, says quarterly update.

Microcontroller sales boomeranged back with strong growth in the economic recovery of 2021, when the MCU market climbed 23% to a record-high $19.6 billion after falling 2% in the 2020 outbreak year of the Covid-19 virus crisis, according to IC Insights’ 1Q Update to its 2022 McClean Report.  IC Insights is forecasting worldwide microcontroller sales to increase 10% in 2022 to reach an all-time high of  $21.5 billion (Figure 1), with automotive MCU growth outpacing most other end-use categories this year.

Figure 1

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Market forecast of 12% growth in 2022 follows historic 30% jump in analog sales in 2021.

Another year of double-digit market growth is expected for analog integrated circuits in 2022 after sales in this semiconductor category surged by an unprecedented 30% in 2021, during the economic recovery from the global recession caused by the Covid-19 virus crisis in 2020, according to IC Insights’ 1Q Update to its 2022 McClean Report.

Total analog IC sales are forecast to rise 12% to $83.2 billion in 2022, with unit shipments increasing 11% to 238.7 billion (Figure 1).  The average selling price of analog ICs is projected to grow 1% in 2022.

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Total MPU sales are expected to rise 7% this year with cellphone processors increasing 10% following a 31% jump in 2021; modest growth is seen in computer CPUs and embedded MPUs, says new 1Q update.

Total microprocessor sales in 2021 maintained strength, growing 14% to a record-high $102.9 billion after climbing 16% in 2020, when emergency lockdowns in the Covid-19 virus crisis drove up demand for personal computers and large-screen smartphones because of increased reliance on the Internet during the deadly pandemic, says the new February 1Q Update of IC Insights’ 2022 McClean Report service (Figure 1). Worldwide sales growth in total microprocessors is expected to slide back in 2022 to an increase of 7%, which will lift the MPU market to another record high of $110.4 billion, with unit shipments rising 6% to 2.6 billion processors, according to the 1Q22 update’s forecast.

Figure 1

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Shortages, tight supplies, and higher prices drive up most O-S-D products in the economic rebound while CMOS image sensor sales are muted by U.S.-China disputes and softness in some systems, says report.

Worldwide sales of optoelectronics, sensors and actuators, and discrete semiconductors (O-S-D) each climbed to record-high levels during the 2021 global economic rebound from the Covid-19 virus crisis and lockdowns aimed at slowing the spread of the deadly pandemic.  According to IC Insights’ January Semiconductor Industry Flash Report, total O-S-D revenues crossed $100 billion for the first time ever in 2021, growing 18% to $104.2 billion compared to $88.3 billion in 2020, when combined sales in the three markets increased by less than 3% as the virus first took hold (Figure 1).

Figure 1

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Moderating growth rate from 2021-2026 follows strong 2016-2021 CAGR of 11.0%.

IC Insights has released its comprehensive forecast and analysis of the worldwide semiconductor industry in its January Semiconductor Industry Flash Report—part of the 2022 McClean Report service.

The report forecasts total semiconductor sales will rise 11% this year following a very strong 25% increase in 2021 and an 11% increase in 2020.  If achieved, it would mark the first time since 1993-1995 that the semiconductor market has enjoyed three consecutive years of double-digit growth.  From 2016-2021, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the total semiconductor market was 11.0%—a very strong period that included a big surge in DRAM and flash memory markets in 2017 and 2018 and strong post-Covid recovery in 2020 and 2021. However, most industry observers—including IC Insights—realize that the semiconductor industry is very cyclical and ongoing annual double-digit gains are unsustainable. As a result, IC Insights now forecasts total semiconductor sales will rise over the next five years at a more moderate compound annual growth rate of 7.1% (Figure 1).

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After years of moderate increases, IC suppliers blindsided by automotive IC demand spike in 2021.

IC Insights has updated and released its comprehensive forecast and analysis of the worldwide semiconductor industry in its January Semiconductor Industry Flash Report, which is included as part of the 2022, 25th edition of The McClean Report service.  Next month, the company will release the first of its four quarterly updates to the service.  The February quarterly update will include, among numerous other topics, an in-depth analysis of the automotive IC market.  An excerpt from this analysis is presented in this Research Bulletin.

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