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Archive for October, 2019

China GDP and PMI Contraction A Risk Factor For Global Economy

Wednesday, October 30th, 2019

Potential that China’s economy will break sharply to the downside from its current gradual downward slope .

IC Insights recently released its October Update to The McClean Report 2019.  Part of the update reviewed U.S. and China GDP and PMI trends in light of the current trade friction between the two nations.

Given that the global economy increased by a healthy 3.0% in 2018, it is difficult to comprehend that an economy growing 6% could be considered a risk factor for worldwide GDP growth this year. However, that is the case with China and it’s slowing economic growth. Of concern is that China’s quarterly economic growth will break sharply to the downside from its current gradual downward slope (Figure 1).

Figure 1

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Wafer Capacity by Feature Size Shows Rapid Growth at <10nm

Friday, October 18th, 2019

Cellphone and graphics processors drive demand for leading edge processes.

Leading-edge processes (<28nm) took over as the largest portion in terms of monthly installed capacity available in 2015.  By the end of 2019, <28nm capacity is forecast to represent about 49% of the IC industry’s total capacity, based on information in IC Insights’ Global Wafer Capacity 2019-2023 report. At the very leading edge, <10nm processes are now in volume production and are forecast to represent 5% of worldwide capacity in 2019.  The share of <10nm capacity is forecast to jump to 25% and become the largest capacity segment by 2023 (Figure 1).

Forcast Monthy Graph

Figure 1

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2019 Microprocessor Slump Snaps Nine Years of Record Sales

Friday, October 11th, 2019

MPU market being pulled down by weakness in smartphones and servers, as well as the fallout from the U.S.‑China trade war.  A modest rebound is expected in 2020, followed by new all-time high sales in 2021.

The microprocessor market’s string of nine straight record-high annual sales between 2010 and 2018 is expected to end this year with worldwide MPU revenue dropping 4% to about $77.3 billion because of weakness in smartphone shipments, excess inventories in data center computers, and the global fallout from the U.S.-China trade war, according to IC Insights’ recently updated forecast.  Microprocessor sales are expected to stage a modest rebound in 2020, growing 2.7% to $79.3 billion (Figure 1) and then are forecast to reach a new record-high level of about $82.3 billion in 2021, based on IC Insights’ outlook for MPUs in the Mid-Year Update to the 2019 McClean Report.

Figure 1

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