Economic and trade uncertainties, softer demand to keep pressure on DRAM ASPs in 2019.
IC Insights will release its 200+ page Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2019 later this month. The Mid-Year Update revises IC Insights’ worldwide economic and IC industry forecasts through 2023 that were published in The McClean Report 2019, released in January. Included in the update is a review of capital spending and DRAM market trends for the balance of this year and through the forecast period.
One of the significant questions facing the IC industry in the second half of 2019 is if and when the DRAM market will rebound. Any rebound in the market will be driven in part by available manufacturing capacity. After huge capex outlays for DRAM in 2017 and 2018, the question becomes how much new capacity will come online and how far DRAM prices (price per bit) will fall as a result of this buildup.
The three main DRAM suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—generally agree that DRAM bit volume will grow roughly 20% per year over the next few years. Figure 1 shows Micron’s perspective on the capex required to increase DRAM bit volume shipments 20% per year (data from Micron’s 2018 Analyst and Investor Event) versus IC Insights’ DRAM capex history and forecast data.
