Archive for December, 2018
Thursday, December 13th, 2018
DRAM fastest growing market in four of past six years, demonstrating very cyclical market.
IC Insights is in the process of revising its forecast and analysis of the IC industry and will present its new findings in The McClean Report 2019, which will be published in January 2019. Among the revisions is a complete update of forecast growth rates of the 33 main product categories classified by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization (WSTS) through the year 2023.
Topping the chart of fastest-growing products for 2018 is DRAM, which comes as no surprise given the strong rise of average selling prices in this segment over the past two years (Figure 1). The 2018 DRAM market is expected to show an increase of 39%, a solid follow-up to the 77% growth in 2017. The number-one position is not unfamiliar territory for the DRAM market. It was also the fastest-growing IC segment in 2013 and 2014.
Figure 1
Remarkably, DRAM has been at the top and near the bottom of this list over the past six years, demonstrating its very volatile and cyclical nature. IC Insights forecasts that DRAM will rank nearly last in terms of market growth in 2019, with a 1% decrease in total sales. After two strong years of growth, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—the world’s three primary DRAM suppliers—have expanded their manufacturing capacity and are beginning to ramp up production, bringing some much needed relief to strained supplies, especially for high-performance DRAM devices. At the same time, shipments of large-scale datacenter servers, which were a primary catalyst for much of the recent DRAM market surge, have begun to ease as uncertain economic and trade conditions factor into decisions about continuing with the strong build out.
NAND flash joins DRAM as another memory segment that has enjoyed very strong growth over the past two years (Figure 2). Solid-state computing, particularly, has been a key driver for high-density, high-performance NAND flash even as mobile applications continue to be a significant driver. Meanwhile, automotive and computing special purpose logic devices have also been strong performers the past two years. The top five IC markets listed for 2018 are the only product categories that are expected to surpasses the 17% growth rate of the total IC market this year.
Figure 2The full list of IC product rankings and forecasts for the 2019-2023 timeperiod is included in The McClean Report 2019, which will be released in January 2019.
Report Details: The 2019 McClean Report
The 2019 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, will be released in January 2019. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 200+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year. An individual user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.
As part of your 2019 subscription, you are entitled to free attendance at a McClean Report seminar (one seat for each copy purchased; company-wide licensees receive five free seats). The schedule for next year’s McClean Report seminar tour is shown below.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019 — Scottsdale, Arizona
Thursday, January 24, 2019 — Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, January 29, 2019 — Boston, Massachusetts
To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research reports and services please visit our website: www.icinsights.com.
More Information Contact
For more information regarding this Research Bulletin, please contact Bill McClean, President at IC Insights. Phone: +1-480-348-1133, email: bill@icinsights.com
Tags: automotive, DRAM, ICManufacturing, industrial, McClean Report, NAND, Semiconductors
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Monday, December 10th, 2018
Despite some high-profile setbacks with autonomous vehicles, auto electronic systems growth projects well; remains a hotbed for semiconductor growth.
Sales of automotive electronic systems are forecast to increase 7.0% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019, the highest growth rate in both years among the six major end-use applications for semiconductors. Figure 1 shows that sales of automotive-related electronic systems are forecast to increase to $152 billion in 2018 from $142 billion in 2017, and are forecast to rise to $162 billion in 2019. Furthermore, automotive electronic systems are expected to enjoy a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2017 through 2021, again topping all other major system categories, based on recent findings by IC Insights.
Figure 1
Overall, the automotive segment is expected to account for 9.4% of the $1.62 trillion total worldwide electronic systems market in 2018 (Figure 2), a slight increase from 9.1% in 2017. Automotive has increased only incrementally over the years, and is forecast to show only marginal gains as a percent of the total electronic systems market through 2021, when it is forecast to account for 9.9% of global electronic systems sales. Though accounting for a rather small percentage of total electronic system marketshare in 2018, (larger only than the government/military category), automotive is expected to be the fastest-growing segment through 2021.
Figure 2
Technology features that are focused on self-driving (autonomous) vehicles, ADAS, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications, on-board safety, convenience, and environmental features, as well as ongoing interest in electric vehicles, continues to lift the market for automotive electronics systems, despite some highly publicized accidents involving self-driving vehicles this year that were at least partly blamed on technology miscues.
New advancements are more widely available onboard mid range and entry-level cars and as aftermarket products, which has further raised automotive system growth in recent years. In the semiconductor world, this is particularly good news for makers of analog ICs, MCUs, and sensors since a great number of all of these devices are required in most of these automotive systems. It is worth noting that the Automotive—Special Purpose Logic category is forecast to increase 29% this year—second only to the DRAM market, and the Automotive—Application-Specific Analog market is forecast to jump 14% this year—as backup cameras, blind-spot (lane departure) detectors, and other “intelligent” systems are mandated or otherwise being added to more vehicles. Meanwhile, memory (specifically, DRAM and flash memory) is increasingly playing a more critical role in the development of new automotive system solutions used in vehicles.
Report Details: The McClean Report 2019
The 2019 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, will be released in January 2019. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 250+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year. An individual user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.
As part of your 2019 subscription, you are entitled to free attendance at a McClean Report seminar (one seat for each copy purchased; company-wide licensees receive five free seats). The schedule for next year’s seminar tour is shown below. Tuesday, January 22, 2019 — Scottsdale, Arizona
Thursday, January 24, 2019 — Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, January 29, 2019 — Boston, Massachusetts
To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research reports and services please visit our website: www.icinsights.com.
More Information Contact
For more information regarding this Research Bulletin, please contact Bill McClean, President at IC Insights. Phone: +1-480-348-1133, email: bill@icinsights.com
Tags: automotive, communications, computer, DRAM, Foundry Market, IC, IC manufacturing, ICManufacturing, McClean Report, MCU, roadmap, Semiconductors, sensors
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Monday, December 10th, 2018
Samsung’s two-year capex spending of $46.8 billion nearly matches the combined two-year capex spending of $48.4 set by Intel and TSMC.
IC Insights revised its outlook for total semiconductor industry capital spending and presented its forecast of semiconductor capex spending for individual companies in its November Update to The McClean Report 2018, which was released earlier this month.
Samsung is expected to have the largest capex budget of any IC supplier again in 2018. After spending $24.2 billion for semiconductor capex in 2017, IC Insights forecasts that Samsung’s spending will edge slightly downward, but remain at a very strong level of $22.6 billion in 2018 (Figure 1). If it comes in at this amount, Samsung’s two-year semiconductor capital spending will be an astounding $46.8 billion.
Figure 1
As seen in Figure 1, Samsung’s semiconductor capital outlays from 2010, the first year the company spent more than $10 billion in semiconductor capex, through 2016 averaged $12.0 billion per year. However, after spending $11.3 billion in 2016, the company more than doubled its 2017 capex budget. The fact that Samsung’s continued its strong capex spending in 2018 is just as impressive.
IC Insights believes that Samsung’s massive spending outlays in 2017 and 2018 will have repercussions far into the future. One effect that has already begun is a period of overcapacity in the 3D NAND flash market. This overcapacity situation is due not only to Samsung’s huge spending for 3D NAND flash, but also from spending by competitors (e.g., SK Hynix, Micron, Toshiba, Intel, etc.) that attempt to keep pace in this market segment.
With the DRAM and NAND flash memory markets showing strong growth through the first three quarters of 2018, SK Hynix ramped up its capital spending this year. In 1Q18, SK Hynix said that it intended to increase its capex spending by “at least 30%” this year. In the November Update, IC Insights forecasts that SK Hynix will see a 58% surge in its semi capex spending. The increased spending by SK Hynix this year is focused primarily on bringing new capacity online at two of its large memory fabs—M15, a 3D NAND flash fab in Cheongju, South Korea, and the expansion of its huge DRAM fab in Wuxi, China. The Cheongju fab is being pushed to open before the end of this year. The Wuxi fab is also targeted to open by the end of this year, a few months earlier than its original start date of early 2019.
Overall, IC Insights’ now forecasts total semiconductor industry capital spending will climb 15% to $107.1 billion this year, the first time that annual industry capex is expected to top $100.0 billion. Following the industry-wide growth this year, semiconductor capex is expected to decline 12% in 2019 (Figure 2).
Figure 2
Given that the current softness in the memory market is expected to extend into at least the first half of next year, the combined capital spending by the three largest memory suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—is forecast to drop from $45.4 billion in 2018 to $37.5 billion in 2019, a decline of 17%.
In total, the top five spenders, which are expected to represent 66% of total outlays this year, are forecast to cut their capital spending by 14% in 2019 with the remaining semiconductor industry companies registering a 7% decline.
Report Details: The McClean Report 2019
The 2019 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, will be released in January 2019. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 200+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year. An individual user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.
As part of your 2019 subscription, you are entitled to free attendance at a McClean Report seminar (one seat for each copy purchased; company-wide licensees receive five free seats). The schedule for next year’s seminar tour is shown below.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019 — Scottsdale, Arizona
Thursday, January 24, 2019 — Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, January 29, 2019 — Boston, Massachusetts
To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research reports and services please visit our website: www.icinsights.com.
Tags: intel, machine vision, McClean Report, micron, samsung, Semiconductors, tsmc
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Monday, December 10th, 2018
Samsung expected to extend its number one ranking and sales lead over Intel to 19%.
IC Insights’ November Update to the 2018 McClean Report, released later this month, includes a discussion of the forecasted top-25 semiconductor suppliers in 2018 (the top-15 2018 semiconductor suppliers are covered in this research bulletin). The Update also includes a detailed five-year forecast of the IC market by product type (including dollar volume, unit shipments, and average selling price).
The expected top-15 worldwide semiconductor (IC and O-S-D—optoelectronic, sensor, and discrete) sales ranking for 2018 is shown in Figure 1. It includes seven suppliers headquartered in the U.S., three in Europe, two each in South Korea and Japan, and one in Taiwan. After announcing in early April 2018 that it had successfully moved its headquarters location from Singapore to the U.S., IC Insights now classifies Broadcom as a U.S. company.
In 2Q18, Toshiba completed the $18.0 billion sale of its memory IC business to the Bain Capital-led consortium. Toshiba then repurchased a 40.2% share of the business. The Bain consortium goes by the name of BCPE Pangea and the group owns 49.9% of Toshiba Memory Corporation (TMC). Hoya Corp. owns the remaining 9.9% of TMC’s shares. The new owners have plans for an IPO within three years. Bain has said it plans to support the business in pursing M&A targets, including potentially large deals.
As a result of the sale of Toshiba’s memory business, the 2018 sales results shown in Figure 1 include the combined sales of the remaining semiconductor products at Toshiba (e.g., Discrete devices and System LSIs) and NAND flash sales from Toshiba Memory Corporation.
In total, the top-15 semiconductor companies’ sales are forecast to jump by 18% in 2018 compared to 2017, two points higher than the expected total worldwide semiconductor industry 2018/2017 increase of 16%. The three largest memory suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—are each forecast to register greater than 25% year-over-year growth in 2018 with SK Hynix expected to log the highest growth among the top 15 companies with a 41% surge in sales this year. All of the top-15 companies are expected to have sales of at least $8.0 billion in this year, two companies more than in 2017. Nine of the top-15 companies are forecast to register double-digit year-over-year growth in 2018. Moreover, five companies are expected to have ≥20% growth, including four of the big memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Western Digital/SanDisk) as well as Nvidia.
Figure 1
As shown, IC Insights expects the first through seventh rankings to remain unchanged in 2018 as compared to 2017. The largest move upward in the ranking is forecast to come from Western Digital/San Disk, which is expected to move up three spots to the 12th position. In contrast, NXP is expected to fall two places to 13th with a sales increase of only 1% this year. However, the worst-performing company in the ranking is forecast to be Qualcomm with a semiconductor revenue decline of 3% this year, the only top-15 company expected to register a drop in sales.
Intel was the number one ranked semiconductor supplier in 1Q17 but lost its lead spot to Samsung in 2Q17. It also fell from the top spot in the full-year 2017 ranking, a position it had held since 1993. With the strong surge in the DRAM and NAND flash markets over the past year, Samsung is forecast to go from having 7% more total semiconductor sales than Intel in 2017 to having 19% more semiconductor sales than Intel in 2018.
Memory devices are forecast to represent 84% of Samsung’s semiconductor sales in 2018, up three points from 81% in 2017 and up 10 points from 71% just two years earlier in 2016. Moreover, the company’s non-memory sales in 2018 are expected to be only $13.3 billion, up only 6% from 2017’s non-memory sales level of $12.5 billion. In contrast, Samsung’s memory sales are forecast to be up 31% this year and reach $70.0 billion.
The top-15 ranking includes one pure-play foundry (TSMC) and three fabless companies. If TSMC were excluded from the top-15 ranking, Taiwan-based MediaTek would have been ranked in the 15th position with forecasted 2018 sales of $7.9 billion, up only 1% from 2017.
IC Insights includes foundries in the top-15 semiconductor supplier ranking since it has always viewed the ranking as a top supplier list, not a marketshare ranking, and realizes that in some cases the semiconductor sales are double counted. With many of our clients being vendors to the semiconductor industry (supplying equipment, chemicals, gases, etc.), excluding large IC manufacturers like the foundries would leave significant “holes” in the list of top semiconductor suppliers. Foundries and fabless companies are identified in the Figure. In the April Update to The McClean Report, marketshare rankings of IC suppliers by product type were presented and foundries were excluded from these listings.
Overall, the top-15 list is provided as a guideline to identify which companies are the leading semiconductor suppliers, whether they are IDMs, fabless companies, or foundries.
Report Details: The 2018 McClean Report
Additional details on IC company sales and IC Insights’ five-year IC market forecast are provided in the November Update to The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry. A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 250+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year. An individual user license to the 2018 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,290 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,290.
To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research reports and services please visit our website: www.icinsights.com.
Tags: Forecast, foundry, Foundry Market, IC manufacturing, ICManufacturing, intel, McClean Report, micron, NAND, NVIDIA, NXP, qualcomm, samsung, Semiconductors, toshiba, tsmc
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