Photonics has seen solid growth yet it hasn’t met its potential for explosive growth. 2020 won’t be the year that happens, but photonics will pass several milestones on its way to broad commercialization.

Though maturing, today’s photonics ecosystem still most closely resembles the electronics ecosystem of the1980s. Whereas electronics evolved over the past >half century to become today’s sophisticated, well-oiled design and manufacturing ecosystem, this evolution has not yet occurred in photonics.

Photonics is becoming relevant, then prevalent, and finally dominant at shorter and shorter distances. Long haul telecommunications are transported via fiber optics. Now photonics has moved into the data center. Hyperscale data centers are challenged by heat, bandwidth, power consumption and cost, and data latency. Compared to copper, fiber is cheaper, faster, lower latency, higher bandwidth, and consumes less power, thus lowering heat and costs.

Fiber optics deployment between racks in the data center is largely complete, and fiber now interconnects servers within the rack. So photonics has already moved from dominance at kilometers, to prevalence at ten of meters, to relevance at single meters. As Photonic Integrated Circuits (PIC) become more commonly available, photonics will become relevant at millimeters. Work is underway to integrate photonics, including the laser, on-chip with electronics, moving photonics relevance down to microns.

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2020 will be a year of rapid growth fueled by increased connectivity with growth in 5G and increased security concerns fueled by that connectivity.

5G devices are selling at a good adoption rate in China but the US and Europe will grow that market this year.

Billions of connected devices across all industries will enable IOT, AI and lay the framework for autonomous vehicles.  Advanced cloud computing and edge computing will be required to house and mine this data fueling growth in the Server and Network segments.

Mil-Aero technology is increasingly complex with many sensors communicating within a system and will require advanced technology to process this data accurately and rapidly.

Security remains a primary concern for both Mil-Aero and Consumer industries.  More data means more opportunities for corruption or attacks.

All segments are evolving rapidly and require the ability to change at a rapid pace, such as adding new standards for communications or for data security.  FPGA’s are an integral part of the industry and are growing in use due to their flexibility and ability to facilitate rapid changes.

Early availability of hardware is increasingly important when devices require large software stacks.  Markets such as Mil-Aero, IOT, AI and automotive can all benefit from proven solutions that reduce costly re-spins or errors that escape to production.

Blue Pearl Software is expertly positioned to help fuel this growth.  Partnering with leading FPGA providers, such as Xilinx, Intel and Microsemi, we provide a suite that allows designers to accelerate design while reducing cost and improving quality.

2020 will be a great year for FPGA design and we, at Blue Pearl software, are ready to help.

In 2020, Artificial Intelligence and the need for more advanced memory and storage technology will be two key trends gaining momentum.

Demand for larger and more efficient memories will continue to grow rapidly throughout the year, fueled by the expansion of AI. Processors increasingly require larger, faster and more power efficient memories to operate, with growing internal caches struggling to cater to this demand. While the embedded memory market has utilized the same SRAM and Flash cells for decades, the growing need for larger memories will push the search for smaller, lower power, memory cells to center stage. MRAM and ReRAM are promising new technologies to address this, and some foundries are already working on adding MRAM to their offering, with ReRAM soon to follow.

In addition, the need for larger storage devices will grow even faster in 2020, necessary to support the increasing number of surveillance cameras, personal videos, and data collected by governments and corporates globally. To address this demand, Flash memory providers will continue to add more layers of 3D NAND but there will also be a strong shift towards emerging memory technologies, which will start accounting for a more significant share of the market. MRAM is reaching productization with companies starting to sell discrete memory chips based on this technology. ReRAM is also making significant productization progress and we expect to see initial orders in 2020.

AI’s rapid expansion into new applications will continue, evidenced by acquisitions such as Habana Labs. In parallel to current AI technology, Neuromorphic Computing will become a major research target as a cornerstone in the future of AI. Research examining the use of ReRAM as the enabler for Neuromorphic Computing will also be a focus in 2020.

As we move into 2020, artificial intelligence (AI) remains the top technology trend driving the evolution of the EDA space. Last year, venture capital pumped $860 million into AI silicon startups, each of which need state-of-the-art EDA tools to design and deliver next-generation AI ICs. And of course, established IC firms around the globe have for years developed increasingly innovative AI IC designs that push the boundaries of what’s possible with EDA software. To help companies deliver more sophisticated AI processor designs, EDA companies such as Mentor, a Siemens business are doing two things: (1) developing tools to help companies design AI-accelerators faster, and (2) actually leveraging machine learning algorithms to improve their own EDA IC design tools, so they can deliver better results for customers faster. Look for more of this in 2020.

AI technology carries over to another trend to watch in 2020: silicon photonics. Data centers are central to the evolution of AI, due to the need for faster processing within the data center, as well as the need to move that data into and out of data centers more rapidly. Enter silicon photonics, which in 2019 began to emerge from research labs and find its way into more and more commercial deployments. Watch for silicon photonics ICs to make a move into the data center, where their promise of dramatic performance improvement is much needed.

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The year 2019 will be memorable in the PCB business.  We saw clear signs that traditional large rigid PCB design, assembly, and manufacturing technologies certainly maintained their status quo.  But a new breed of OEM customer kept pushing the envelope in 2019.  Those PCB projects are best characterized as considerably smaller PCBs with a majority involving matchbook size rigid and rigid-flex circuits, bare die, and wire bonding.

As we move into 2020, this new breed of OEM PCB customer requires such technologies as flip chip, chip on board (CoB), and wire bonding, meaning wire bonding connecting bare die onto a substrate or small rigid or rigid-flex circuit.  In effect, our industry is moving from traditional SMT PCB manufacturing to PCB hybrid manufacturing, which combines both traditional SMT manufacturing and microelectronics manufacturing.

Based on recent industrial, medical, mil/aero, and computer OEM customer requirements, the trend today is for a combination of traditional SMT manufacturing and the growing popularity of microelectronics/wire bonding manufacturing used to perform bare die attach/wire bonding on the PCB.  This new PCB manufacturing discipline is gaining traction because OEMs continue to require smaller PCBs and packaging.  Bare die attach and wire bonding are required in smaller PCBs where real estate is at a premium.  However, in a number of cases, SMT manufacturing of that PCB is first performed followed by microelectronics/wire bonding manufacturing.

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How do you think the electronic component industry will perform in 2020?

At Mouser Electronics, we are very optimistic about future business, particularly for our industry. We are investing in a major infrastructure expansion at our global headquarters and distribution center in Texas to be ready for the future business growth. It’s a very exciting time for us.

While manufacturing slowed in 2019, the digital revolution is still driving global demand for semiconductors and electronic components. There’s 5G, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, robotics, industrial automation and transportation — all propelling our industry to new heights. This will continue to escalate.

With the growth of IoT, there will be new technologies introduced from our manufacturers around sensor technologies; the latest in power management; and of course, advancements in the microprocessors. Automotive, factory and home automation also will continue to be emerging markets as more technologies are introduced to make factories, homes and vehicles smarter and safer.
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‘Moore’s Law Gives Way to More’s Law’

In 2020, we expect Kurzweil law of accelerating returns to apply and therefore 2019 trends to accelerate.

As the Economist magazine recently headlined, we are living through a chip and sensor renaissance. This is fueled by an unprecedented growth of devices of all shapes and sizes at the ‘Edge’, permeating both industrial and consumer markets. While the pundits lament the demise of ‘Moore’s Law’, there is a new law emerging which we should perhaps call ‘More’s Law’ – there will be more of these devices, emerging at an exponential rate.

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