A 4.8% surge in GDP next year will return global GDP to same level seen in 2019.
IC Insights recently released its October Update to the 2020 McClean Report that included an updated overview of its latest GDP forecasts for 2020 and 2021.
It is clear now, but the primary factor dragging on IC market growth this year is the severe downturn in the global economy due to ramifications associated with the Covid-19 outbreak. Figure 1 shows the severe impact the outbreak has had on the GDP growth rates of major countries/regions. Each country/region is forecast to see a steep decline in its GDP growth rate this year. The forecasted GDP growth rates range from -10.0% in the U.K. to China’s positive 2.4%. Among all major countries/regions, only China is expected to register positive GDP growth this year, although its growth rate is down significantly from 6.1% in 2019. China was able to contain Covid-19 in the second quarter of this year and the country’s economy has been on the mend since. Worldwide GDP is now forecast to decline 4.5% in 2020 compared to the 2.4% gain in 2019.
Figure 1
