July Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 50.9%; Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slower; New Orders and Inventories Contracting

(a) Number of months moving in current direction


Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (11); Brass; Copper (12); Copper Based Products (9); Electric/Electronic Components; Metal Parts; Plastic Products (7); Polyethylene(b) (2); Rubber Products (6); Steel(b) (11); Steel Products (8); and Titanium Dioxide (4).

Commodities Down in Price

Corn; Diesel Fuel; Ethylene; Gasoline; HDPE; LDPE; Polyethylene(b); Polypropylene; Soybean Oil; Steel(b) (3); and Wheat.

Commodities in Short Supply

Butadiene; and Electric/Electronic Components (7).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

(b) Reported as both up and down in price.



Manufacturing continued its growth in July as the PMI registered 50.9 percent, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points when compared to June’s reading of 55.3 percent. The PMI registered the lowest reading since July 2009, when it registered 49 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 26th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 24th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through July (57.6 percent) corresponds to a 5.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for July (50.9 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.9 percent increase in real GDP annually.”


          Month                     PMI                               Month                     PMI
Jul 2011 50.9 Jan 2011 60.8
Jun 2011 55.3 Dec 2010 58.5
May 2011 53.5 Nov 2010 58.2
Apr 2011 60.4 Oct 2010 56.9
Mar 2011 61.2 Sep 2010 55.3
Feb 2011 61.4 Aug 2010 55.2

Average for 12 months – 57.3
High – 61.4
Low – 50.9

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