On April 19, 1965, Electronics magazine published an article that would change the world. It was authored by a Fairchild Semiconductor’s R&D director, who made the observation that transistors would decrease in cost and increase in performance at an exponential rate. The article predicted the personal computer and mobile communications. The author’s name was Gordon Moore and the seminal observation was later dubbed “Moore’s Law.” Three years later he would co-found Intel. The law defines the trajectory of the semiconductor industry, with profound consequences that have touched every aspect of our lives.
The period is sometimes quoted as 18 months because of Intel executive David House, who in 1975 predicted that chip performance would double every 18 months; being a combination of the effect of more transistors and their faster switching time.
What if Gordon Moore got his math wrong and that instead of the number of components on an integrated circuit doubling every couple of years, he said every three years? (more…)